Yes ↓ -3% 5/27/2026, 00:03:09
Spread is tight and liquidity is strong, but current price looks near-fair with no clear catalyst or mispricing large enough to trade confidently.
Unified market view
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 58%
Current price 72¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Spread is tight and liquidity is strong, but current price looks near-fair with no clear catalyst or mispricing large enough to trade confidently.
Watch triggers
- Best bid/ask 0.71/0.72
- 7d price down 2pts
- High liquidity, low spread
Why not now
Spread is tight and liquidity is strong, but current price looks near-fair with no clear catalyst or mispricing large enough to trade confidently.
Revisit when
Best bid/ask 0.71/0.72 · 7d price down 2pts · High liquidity, low spread
Execution guard
Price 72¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $83,298. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 5/31/2026, 14:38:44
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
69¢Volume (24h) ?
$3,055Liquidity ?
$86,250Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
-39.0%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
68¢ 4,414.83
67¢ 2,098.91
66¢ 7,098
65¢ 410
64¢ 1,400
Asks
69¢ 8,115.91
70¢ 11,492.58
71¢ 9,780.49
72¢ 1,252.88
73¢ 4,482.51
Price history
Interval: 6h
5/31/2026, 14:17:05 68.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:19:03 68.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:21:06 68.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:23:04 68.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:25:03 68.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:27:04 68.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:29:04 68.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:31:06 68.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:33:03 68.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:35:04 68.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:37:03 68.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:38:04 68.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 5/25/2026, 12:02:58
Current price is near fair value with no clear short-term catalyst or strong orderbook dislocation.
Yes ↓ -3% 5/24/2026, 00:02:41
The market is efficiently priced with a narrow spread and no strong new information. Recent drift down supports caution, but edge is too small for a clear buy or sell.
Yes ↑ +1% 5/20/2026, 00:02:35
No strong mispricing: the book is tight and the current 0.73 price already reflects meaningful removal risk. Small bullish bias is not enough to buy aggressively.
Yes ↓ -2% 5/18/2026, 00:02:32
Price is near the top of the recent range and liquidity is decent, but the market already reflects substantial risk. No clear mispricing or catalyst is visible.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.