Yes ↓ -3% 7/15/2026, 18:02:41
The market is liquid and tightly priced, but the edge looks small and mostly reflects mild downside pressure rather than a strong mispricing.
Unified market view
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 63%
Price at model run 30¢ Model run: 7/15/2026, 18:02:41
Live best ask 30.7¢ Live update: 7/15/2026, 23:54:57
Model gpt-5.4-mini
The market is liquid and tightly priced, but the edge looks small and mostly reflects mild downside pressure rather than a strong mispricing.
Watch triggers
- Price near 0.30
- Recent 1d/1h down move
- Ask depth exceeds bid depth
Why not now
The market is liquid and tightly priced, but the edge looks small and mostly reflects mild downside pressure rather than a strong mispricing.
Revisit when
Price near 0.30 · Recent 1d/1h down move · Ask depth exceeds bid depth
Execution guard
Price 30.7¢ · spread 0.6 pts · liquidity $253,251. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 7/15/2026, 23:54:57
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
30.7¢Volume (24h) ?
$18,079Liquidity ?
$253,251Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.6¢Depth imbalance ?
-0.7%Momentum ?
1.2%Volatility ?
0.2%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
30.1¢ 1,722.6
30¢ 1,325.37
29.8¢ 709.26
29.7¢ 170
29.5¢ 5
Asks
30.7¢ 696.06
30.8¢ 1,144.87
31¢ 449.99
31.1¢ 857.81
31.2¢ 840
Price history
Interval: 6h
7/15/2026, 23:33:04 30.4¢
7/15/2026, 23:35:05 30.4¢
7/15/2026, 23:37:05 30.4¢
7/15/2026, 23:39:06 30.4¢
7/15/2026, 23:41:04 30.4¢
7/15/2026, 23:43:06 30.4¢
7/15/2026, 23:45:05 30.4¢
7/15/2026, 23:47:05 30.4¢
7/15/2026, 23:49:05 30.4¢
7/15/2026, 23:51:04 30.4¢
7/15/2026, 23:53:08 30.4¢
7/15/2026, 23:54:06 30.4¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -2% 7/15/2026, 00:02:27
The market is tight and liquid, but the current price already reflects meaningful upside. I see only a small negative edge on Yes, not enough for a decisive trade.
Yes ↓ -3% 7/14/2026, 18:02:36
The market has run up sharply over the week, but near-term orderbook is balanced and the current price appears somewhat ahead of a conservative fair value estimate.
Yes ↓ -3% 7/12/2026, 06:02:37
Price is close to fair value with strong recent momentum already embedded; order-book imbalance is not enough for a clean entry.
Yes ↓ -1% 7/11/2026, 12:02:52
Price is near fair value with tight spread and no strong mispricing. Recent upward move is already reflected, and orderbook imbalance is not enough for a clear buy.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.