6/9/2026, 00:01:58 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
14¢
No clear edge versus the 14% Yes price; liquidity is deep and the orderbook slightly favors Yes, but the event remains structurally rare and the spread is small.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price near 14% · Flat short-term history · Deep liquidity
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
61%
Official confirmation of extraterrestrial life/technology by 2026 is very unlikely; the market already prices that low probability reasonably well, and recent price action is flat.
6/7/2026, 06:00:59 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
15¢
No clear mispricing or near-term catalyst; tight spread and balanced depth do not justify taking a directional position at current price.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers No official confirmation catalyst · Stable price action · Tight 1-cent spread
Yes neutral → Edge
0% Confidence
67%
The market is pricing a very low yes probability (~15%) with tight spread and substantial liquidity, while the information environment offers no concrete catalyst for official confirmation before 2027. Price has been stable with no momentum, so I see no detectable edge versus market.
6/7/2026, 00:00:54 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
13¢
Current odds look efficient absent new official disclosure or credible breakout evidence.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Flat short-term price action · Tight 1c spread · No confirmed catalyst
Yes neutral → Edge
0% Confidence
57%
Price is near 13–14% with tight spread and no event catalyst; history is flat to slightly down, so I see no clear mispricing.
