Unified market view

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Hold: Efficient price

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -1%

Confidence 61%

Current price 14¢

Model gpt-5.4-mini

No clear edge versus the 14% Yes price; liquidity is deep and the orderbook slightly favors Yes, but the event remains structurally rare and the spread is small.

Watch triggers

Yes price near 14%
Flat short-term history
Deep liquidity

Why not now

No clear edge versus the 14% Yes price; liquidity is deep and the orderbook slightly favors Yes, but the event remains structurally rare and the spread is small.

Revisit when

Yes price near 14% · Flat short-term history · Deep liquidity

Execution guard

Price 14¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $1,286,765. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 6/13/2026, 13:08:04

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

10¢

Volume (24h) ?

$113,343

Liquidity ?

$1,554,951

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

-34.2%

Momentum ?

0.0%

Volatility ?

0.0%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

9¢ 102,773.02

8¢ 46,767.88

7¢ 85,662.81

6¢ 52,262.65

5¢ 18,494.59

Asks

10¢ 48,621.21

11¢ 511,010.65

12¢ 24,702.38

13¢ 5,238

14¢ 34,089.95

Price history

Interval: 6h

6/13/2026, 12:47:04 9.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:49:04 9.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:51:04 9.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:53:05 9.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:55:16 9.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:57:04 9.5¢

6/13/2026, 12:59:05 9.5¢

6/13/2026, 13:01:04 9.5¢

6/13/2026, 13:03:04 9.5¢

6/13/2026, 13:05:04 9.5¢

6/13/2026, 13:07:03 9.5¢

6/13/2026, 13:08:04 9.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -1% 6/9/2026, 00:01:58

No clear edge versus the 14% Yes price; liquidity is deep and the orderbook slightly favors Yes, but the event remains structurally rare and the spread is small.

Yes → 0% 6/7/2026, 06:00:59

No clear mispricing or near-term catalyst; tight spread and balanced depth do not justify taking a directional position at current price.

Yes → 0% 6/7/2026, 00:00:54

Current odds look efficient absent new official disclosure or credible breakout evidence.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.