1/25/2026, 06:06:41 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
26¢
Negative edge vs market (model ≈18% vs market 26%) and recent downward momentum with ample No-side liquidity suggest selling Yes now.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers continued downward price drift (price < 0.24) and increasing No-side depth · large sell fills at or below current bid · any credible report of Khamenei resignation/death/detention (would flip to buy)
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -8% Confidence 55%
Price has trended down from ~0.315 to 0.26 over the past day/week; large/liquid market reduces mispricing opportunity; no clear credible reporting signals removal within the near ~2-month window.
1/25/2026, 00:04:24 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
28¢
Small negative edge against current price, supported by orderbook imbalance and recent downward trend; high liquidity implies limited mispricing but a modest sell opportunity.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reporting that Khamenei has resigned, been detained, or is incapacitated · Authoritative confirmation of a succession or removal process · Rapid, sustained increase in Yes-side depth or price (e.g., price > 0.35 with volume spike)
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -6% Confidence 60%
Market implies 28% for Yes but recent price drift down from ~0.305 to ~0.275, stronger No-side depth (imbalance ~0.55 vs 0.45), and low volatility — suggests a modestly lower true probability than the market price.
1/24/2026, 18:04:48 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
28¢
Small negative edge against 'Yes', downward short-term trend and orderbook imbalance favor 'No' — sell to capture apparent overpricing before expiry.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Authoritative reporting of Khamenei resignation, detention, incapacitation, or removal (buy signal for 'Yes') · Yes market price rising above 0.33 on sustained volume (re-evaluate and consider buying) · Large shift in orderbook imbalance toward Yes (bidDepthTopN > askDepthTopN) or major news flow reducing uncertainty
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -5% Confidence 55%
Market at 28% but short-term drift down for 'Yes', orderbook imbalance (Yes bid depth weaker vs No), and high liquidity imply price already reflects substantial information; I estimate slightly lower true probability (~23%).
1/24/2026, 12:06:08 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
28¢
No clear edge or actionable mispricing given balanced orderbook and small spread; modest momentum insufficient to justify buy/sell.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers sustained trades / prints above 0.35 · sustained trades / prints below 0.20 · orderbook imbalance flips strongly toward Yes (imbalanceTopN > 0.7)
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 30%
Price (~0.28) shows modest upward momentum but orderbook depth favors 'No' and liquidity is high; no clear mispricing vs. trend signals.
1/24/2026, 06:06:06 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
31¢
No clear edge and orderbook imbalance favors No; avoid trading until a clear information trigger or sustained directional flow.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers credible reporting of Khamenei resignation, detention, death, or incapacitation · major shift in orderbook depth/imbalance or large aggressive trades moving price >5% · credible intelligence leak or official Iranian announcement
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 35%
Conflicting signals: recent price uptick but strong orderbook depth and liquidity favoring No; low volatility and no clear new information—no reliable mispricing detected.
