1/25/2026, 06:08:48 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
17.2¢
Negative edge vs market and visible sell-side liquidity; expect price to drift lower absent major shocks.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reports of mass IRGC defections or leadership fracturing · Announcement of a provisional government or Supreme Leader removal · Widespread armed control of major cities by anti-regime forces
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -9% Confidence 55%
Market price 17.2% vs my estimate ~8% for a full collapse by Mar 31, 2026. Recent 1d decline (~-10%), heavy ask liquidity on Yes and shallow bid depth, and low baseline historical probability for regime overthrow suggest market is overstating risk.
1/25/2026, 00:08:59 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
17.1¢
Market appears well-priced and liquid with a clear consensus toward 'No'; no obvious mispricing or new information to act on.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reporting that the Supreme Leader or core governing institutions have been removed or abdicated · Major IRGC/leadership defections or public splits within regime security apparatus · Declaration of a provisional government or revolutionary council controlling majority population centers
Yes neutral → Edge 0% Confidence 20%
No clear informational edge: market price ~17% is supported by tight spread, high liquidity, and strong ask-side depth. Absent fresh, credible signals of regime collapse, I cannot justify a probability materially different from the market.
1/24/2026, 18:09:34 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Short-term Current price
17¢
Market appears to overprice near-term likelihood of regime collapse (market 17% > my ~9%); strong No-side liquidity and limited recent fundamental signals favor selling Yes now.
Triggers Multiple independent credible reports of collapse or replacement of core IR institutions (Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, IRGC control) · Major IRGC defections or open military split · Widespread, sustained loss of central government control over population centers
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -8% Confidence 60%
I estimate ~9% chance vs market 17% (edge -8%). Iran’s regime collapse within ~2 months remains unlikely given historical resilience; orderbook imbalance (heavy liquidity on No), low recent volatility, and large ask depth for Yes suggest price is elevated by momentum rather than new fundamental information.
1/24/2026, 12:10:00 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
18.1¢
Modest negative edge vs market price and ample liquidity make selling at current price sensible; downside limited but expected. Momentum and bid depth create risk, so prefer short horizon.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Widespread defections or publicized split within IRGC or clerical leadership · Reliable reports of Supreme Leader incapacitation, removal, or replacement · Sustained nationwide insurrection with loss of control over major population centers
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -8% Confidence 45%
Fundamental probability of regime collapse by Mar 31, 2026 is lower (~10%) than market price (18.1%). Recent week-long price run-up likely reflects speculative flow; no clear triggering events or institutional fractures in the data. Orderbook shows buying interest but that is liquidity, not new information.
1/24/2026, 00:09:05 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
23.5¢
Small negative edge and heavy No-side liquidity — market run-up looks momentum-driven rather than fundamental; trim/short Yes exposure near current price.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Sustained, credible reporting that core regime institutions (Supreme Leader office, Guardian Council, IRGC control) have been dissolved or replaced · High-level IRGC/clerical defections or leadership incapacitation · Major cities taken by non-regime forces and a provisional government declared
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -8% Confidence 28%
Current price implies 23.5% chance. Strong short-term momentum raised price from ~16% to ~23% but orderbook shows heavier No-side depth and high liquidity suggesting informed sellers; given the high evidentiary bar for regime collapse by 2026-03-31, I estimate a lower baseline probability (~15%).
