1/25/2026, 06:05:21 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Medium-term Current price
59¢
Market appears to overprice the probability of a US strike vs my model; good liquidity and tight spread make selling at ~0.59 attractive to capture expected mean reversion.
Triggers Credible reporting of imminent US strike authorization or orders · Large, confirmed US strike-capable deployments into the region · Clear Iranian provocation against US personnel or embassies
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -24% Confidence 65%
Given current open-source indicators and historical US restraint about direct strikes on Iranian soil, a ~35% model probability is below the market price (59%); tight, liquid market likely reflects risk premium rather than near-term high probability of a US strike on Iran before Mar 31.
1/25/2026, 00:05:29 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
59¢
Current price appears modestly overpriced relative to model estimate; heavy sell-side depth and low short-term volatility increase odds of mean reversion.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers large ask depth on 'Yes' (askDepthTopN >> bidDepthTopN) · 1d price decline (-0.02) after 7d rise · low log-return volatility (limited momentum)
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -9% Confidence 45%
Market at 59% but orderbook shows much larger ask depth on 'Yes' vs bids and an orderbook imbalance favoring 'No'; low volatility and a small 1d price dip after a weekly run-up suggest limited upside—model estimate ~50%.
1/24/2026, 18:05:56 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
58¢
Small positive edge and clear upward momentum with tight spread and deep liquidity support a modest buy; geopolitical shocks remain unpredictable so position size should be moderate.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reporting of escalating US–Iran incidents or attacks on US forces/proxies · Publicized US military deployments or strike authorizations toward Iran · Breakdown in diplomacy (sanctions/diplomatic expulsions) increasing likelihood of kinetic action
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +4% Confidence 60%
Price has trended up from ~0.44 to ~0.585 over the week with low volatility and high liquidity; short-term momentum and recent buys suggest the market underprices tail risk of a US strike.
1/24/2026, 12:07:18 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Short-term Current price
56¢
Short-term orderbook/flow favors No (pressure on Yes price) and recent 6h–24h declines; liquidity is sufficient to execute a sell.
Triggers credible reporting of a US strike on Iranian soil or embassy (would invert view) · sustained price move >0.05 up or down · large shift in bid/ask depth imbalance (>0.2 change)
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -11% Confidence 60%
Orderbook imbalance (much higher ask depth on Yes and heavy bid depth on No) and short‑term price decline from 0.605→0.56 indicate selling pressure; market price (0.56) appears richer than implied probability given current flow and low recent volatility.
1/24/2026, 00:05:59 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
60¢
Model probability modestly exceeds market (edge ~+0.08) with strong liquidity and recent bullish trend; take a medium-horizon buy to capture further drift while monitoring news.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reporting of imminent US strike plans or significant troop/asset redeployments toward Iran · Public statements or sanctions escalation by US leadership indicating strike authorization · Major Iranian attack on US personnel/assets or allied facilities that would plausibly prompt a US retaliatory strike
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +8% Confidence 55%
Sustained upward price momentum over 1d–1w, high liquidity and tight spread imply informed buying; geopolitical uncertainty and strict resolution criteria limit edge size and confidence.
