1/25/2026, 06:02:55 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
16¢
Estimated model probability (~25%) > market (16%), small spread and deep liquidity make buying attractive for a medium-term hold to let news-driven repricing occur.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reports of Israeli strike planning or air assets moving toward Iran · Major Iranian attack on Israeli assets or a significant escalation between proxies · Public Israeli military/political statements indicating willingness to strike Iran
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +9% Confidence 45%
Market price 16% likely underestimates risk over a ~1yr horizon. Recent drop appears momentum-driven; strong bid depth at current level and persistent Iran–Israel tensions make a ~25% true probability plausible. Uncertainty remains high.
1/25/2026, 00:02:21 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
20¢
Small negative edge (model < market) and short time to expiry; high liquidity but market appears slightly overpricing the Yes outcome.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reporting of an imminent Israeli strike plan or operational movement toward Iran · Major Iranian attack on Israeli assets or allied forces that would plausibly trigger immediate Israeli retaliation · Public Israeli government or senior military statements indicating a strike timeline
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -5% Confidence 35%
Model probability ~15% vs market 20%: recent price drift lower, low volatility, orderbook shows more sell-side depth for Yes, and limited time (~6 days) makes a major new strike less likely absent a clear provocation.
1/24/2026, 18:02:09 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
19¢
Small downward price trend, stronger No-side liquidity, and no clear near-term escalation signals — marginally favorable to sell exposure to 'Yes' at ~0.19.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reporting of Israeli orders/plans to strike Iranian soil or embassies · Rapid, public Iranian actions (major strikes or troop mobilization) escalating toward direct Israel-Iran confrontation · Significant shift in on-market liquidity/large buys lifting Yes price above ~0.30
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -6% Confidence 45%
Baseline strategic costs and historical rarity imply lower-than-19% chance; recent short-term price drift down and orderbook shows heavier ask depth for Yes (relative strength on No side), so market appears slightly overpricing a strike before Jan 31, 2026.
1/24/2026, 12:02:30 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Short-term Current price
20¢
Small positive edge and orderbook imbalance favor Yes, but limited time to expiry and market efficiency mean only a modest buy recommendation.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible reporting of Israeli operational planning or orders targeting Iranian soil · Open-source evidence of Israeli strike preparations (air assets, munitions movement toward Iran) · Major escalation between Israel and Iran-backed forces or a significant provocation
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +5% Confidence 45%
Week-long uptrend for Yes (0.125→0.21) and stronger bid depth/imbalance for Yes suggest marginally higher true probability than the 0.20 price; short-term retracement and high liquidity limit confidence.
1/24/2026, 06:04:52 gpt-5-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
26¢
Modest positive edge driven by orderbook imbalance, recent upward trend (0.175→0.26 over days) and high liquidity make buying at 0.26 attractive for capture of momentum; substantial geopolitical un...
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers credible reporting of Israeli strike preparations or plans targeting Iranian soil/embassy · large redeployment or unusual activity of Israeli air/missile assets near strike range · public Israeli statements escalating to pre-emptive strike rhetoric
Yes bullish ↑ Edge +6% Confidence 45%
Recent strong price uptick and a sustained bid-side orderbook imbalance suggest market momentum and buying pressure may understate escalation risk; however operational, diplomatic, and escalation constraints keep absolute probability low, so edge is modest.
