1/25/2026, 06:03:38 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Short-term Current price
14¢
Market (~14%) is meaningfully above my estimated probability (~2%); decent liquidity but downward price trend and substantial legal/political barriers make selling now preferable.
Triggers Official announcement of US–Denmark agreement or joint statement on transfer of sovereignty · Passage of specific US legislation or signed executive action indicating intent to annex/assume sovereignty · Public confirmation from Greenlandic authorities or Danish parliament of negotiations/consent
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -12% Confidence 70%
Low plausibility: transfer of sovereignty requires major diplomatic, legal, and domestic approvals in Denmark/Greenland and clear US legislative/executive action; no credible negotiations/public momentum since earlier rhetoric. Price has trended down from ~0.215 to ~0.135 and current market at 0.14 appears to overstate likelihood.
1/25/2026, 00:05:04 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Medium-term Current price
12¢
Market appears to overprice 'Yes' relative to my ~3% model. Low volatility and deep book allow execution; political developments could change outlook over months.
Triggers Official joint US-Denmark announcement of transfer/agreement · Signed treaty or legislation effecting sovereignty transfer · Greenland parliament votes to cede sovereignty or hold binding referendum
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -9% Confidence 60%
I estimate ~3% probability vs market 12% (edge -0.09). Major legal/political barriers (Denmark/Greenland consent), prior rejection of US purchase, low event momentum; price has declined week-to-week with low volatility despite deep liquidity.
1/24/2026, 18:05:38 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Medium-term Current price
12¢
Negative edge (-0.09): market appears overpriced relative to fundamentals and probability estimate; recommend selling to capture premium while liquidity is ample.
Triggers Official joint US–Denmark announcement of transfer of sovereignty · Signed legislation or treaty text ceding Greenland to US · Danish parliament or Greenlandic authorities ratify transfer
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -9% Confidence 60%
Model-implied probability ~3% vs market 12% (edge -9%). Significant political, legal, and diplomatic hurdles to US sovereignty transfer; price has declined materially over the week. High liquidity reflects speculation but not stronger fundamentals.
1/24/2026, 12:05:16 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
Short-term Current price
12¢
Current price (~0.12) appears to overstate probability relative to fundamentals and orderflow; downward momentum and heavy liquidity on 'No' make selling into current price preferable in the short ...
Triggers Official US–Denmark announcement of agreement transferring sovereignty · US Congress passes enabling legislation or Denmark issues formal consent · Major credible media scoop confirming imminent transfer negotiations or signed treaty
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -9% Confidence 60%
Low geopolitical plausibility for a US sovereignty transfer by 2026; market has been trending down (0.165→0.125 week), orderbook imbalance and depth favor 'No', and no visible near-term legislative or diplomatic catalysts.
1/24/2026, 06:02:42 gpt-5-mini
Signal Sell Horizon
To expiry Current price
13¢
Market appears materially overpricing a low-probability geopolitical event; deep liquidity allows execution. Sell and wait for resolution or material news.
Triggers Official US–Denmark announcement of agreement to transfer sovereignty · Signed US legislation or executive action explicitly effecting transfer · Greenland referendum or Greenland/Danish parliamentary votes in favor of transfer
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -11% Confidence 70%
Model probability (~2%) well below market price (13%). Formal US sovereignty transfer requires US–Denmark agreement, Danish/Greenland political consent and legislation; prior 2019 attempt failed, making this outcome highly unlikely by 2026.
