Yes ↑ +3% 2026/9/17 18:00:40
The model sees a modest positive probability edge for Yes, making the current price appear above fair value under the specified signal convention.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
模型傾向：看低
觀察觸發點執行狀態
待確認
模型偏差 Yes ↑ +3%
置信度 68%
模型運行時價格 75¢ 模型運行: 2026/9/17 18:00:40
即時最佳賣價 77¢ 即時更新: 2026/9/17 20:49:44
模型 OpenAI
United Russia appears more likely than the 75% market price implies, given its dominant position and the structural advantages of incumbency. The estimate remains uncertain because the election is not yet scheduled definitively and political conditions could shift materially.
觀察觸發點
- Material change in United Russia support
- Election rules or schedule changes
- Credible polling reversal
為何仍需確認
United Russia appears more likely than the 75% market price implies, given its dominant position and the structural advantages of incumbency. The estimate remains uncertain because the election is not yet scheduled definitively and political conditions could shift materially.
重新評估條件
Material change in United Russia support · Election rules or schedule changes · Credible polling reversal
執行約束
價格 77¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $802,468。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/9/17 20:49:44
模型觀點
偏向上行最佳賣價 ?
77¢24h 成交量 ?
$445,649流動性 ?
$802,468未平倉量 ?
$4,317,393價差 ?
1¢深度不平衡 ?
10.7%動量 ?
2.7%波動率 ?
0.1%趨勢斜率 ?
0原因
- 動量上行
- 買盤深度占優
- 價差不大（<=2¢）
規則說明
- 動量 = 選定區間內的價格變化，正值代表上行。
- 深度不平衡比較買賣盤總量，正值代表買盤占優。
- 價差 = 最佳賣價 - 最佳買價，越小越容易進出。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
76¢ 116,011.03
75¢ 134,575.62
74¢ 149,677.17
73¢ 59,723
72¢ 72,300
賣盤
77¢ 70,559.85
78¢ 181,035.54
79¢ 55,514.49
80¢ 97,202.1
81¢ 25,289.78
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/9/17 20:24:12 76.5¢
2026/9/17 20:26:12 76.5¢
2026/9/17 20:28:13 76.5¢
2026/9/17 20:30:13 76.5¢
2026/9/17 20:32:26 76.5¢
2026/9/17 20:34:12 76.5¢
2026/9/17 20:36:14 76.5¢
2026/9/17 20:38:12 76.5¢
2026/9/17 20:40:13 76.5¢
2026/9/17 20:42:13 76.5¢
2026/9/17 20:44:13 76.5¢
2026/9/17 20:45:13 76.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↑ +2% 2026/9/17 12:00:34
The model estimates Yes modestly above its 0.75 market price, indicating limited positive divergence rather than a decisive mispricing.
Yes ↑ +3% 2026/9/17 06:00:35
The primary outcome appears slightly above fair value at current pricing, despite strong structural support.
Yes ↑ +2% 2026/9/17 00:00:22
The primary outcome appears modestly below fair value, supported by structural political advantage and bid-side depth.
Yes ↓ -2% 2026/9/16 18:00:35
The estimated probability is modestly below the market price, with recent momentum weakening.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · Yes 2026/9/17 19:47:19
$40,498 76¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/17 19:26:21
$7,600 76¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/17 18:55:16
$5,000 76¢
賣出 · Yes 2026/9/17 18:30:21
$5,361 75¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/17 15:20:24
$5,500 76¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/17 14:53:40
$21,233 75¢
賣出 · Yes 2026/9/17 09:01:06
$16,520 73.39¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/17 08:19:39
$16,882 75¢