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Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
The Yes price is 0.12, while the long time window and demonstrated recent downside momentum suggest a materially higher chance of at least one brief BTC move to $50,000. Uncertainty remains high because the current BTC level and macro path are not provided.
Reassess after a major BTC spot move
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
The 2026 deadline leaves substantial time for diplomatic pressure, battlefield shifts, or negotiated pauses to produce a qualifying agreement, making the 7–8% market range appear somewhat low. The strict requirement for a mutually announced general ceasefire remains a major uncertainty.
Official Russia-Ukraine negotiations
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
The market prices no October 2026 rate change at about 50%, but the sharp one-week decline, persistent recent weakness, and heavy sell-side depth suggest the fair probability is modestly lower. Confidence is limited because the meeting is distant and no macroeconomic path is provided.
Reprice after major inflation or labor data
僅作市場情報參考。Polysage 解釋信號與風險，不構成投資建議。
大額成交監控
監測全站單筆大額成交。 · 24h 流向 $6,008,963
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