Yes ↑ +1% 8/3/2026, 12:03:48
No clear mispricing: Yes is near 25% with narrow spread and balanced recent history. The long horizon and binary tail-risk structure make short-term orderbook signals weak versus the market price.
統一市場視圖
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
在一個頁面查看模型觀點、訂單簿、價格歷史和相關鯨魚流向。
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
決策狀態
觀望：價格接近合理值
觀望
模型偏差 Yes ↑ +1%
置信度 54%
模型運行時價格 25¢ 模型運行: 8/3/2026, 12:03:48
即時最佳賣價 26¢ 即時更新: 8/3/2026, 17:47:57
模型 gpt-5.4-mini
No clear mispricing: Yes is near 25% with narrow spread and balanced recent history. The long horizon and binary tail-risk structure make short-term orderbook signals weak versus the market price.
觀察觸發點
- Yes bid depth exceeds ask depth
- Price has been flat around 0.245
- Long-dated tail-risk remains hard to price
為何暫不行動
No clear mispricing: Yes is near 25% with narrow spread and balanced recent history. The long horizon and binary tail-risk structure make short-term orderbook signals weak versus the market price.
重新評估條件
Yes bid depth exceeds ask depth · Price has been flat around 0.245 · Long-dated tail-risk remains hard to price
執行約束
價格 26¢ · 價差 2 pts · 流動性 $69,747。僅在模型觀點與市場盤口一致時行動。
概要
更新時間 8/3/2026, 17:47:57
操作建議
買入最佳賣價 ?
26¢24h 成交量 ?
$81,389流動性 ?
$69,747未平倉量 ?
—價差 ?
2¢深度不平衡 ?
51.2%動量 ?
2.0%波動率 ?
0.3%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 動量上行
- 買盤深度占優
- 價差不大（<=2¢）
規則說明
- 動量 = 選定區間內的價格變化，正值代表上行。
- 深度不平衡比較買賣盤總量，正值代表買盤占優。
- 價差 = 最佳賣價 - 最佳買價，越小越容易進出。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
24¢ 6,195.74
23¢ 5,320
22¢ 1,076.18
21¢ 2,851.02
20¢ 2,788.19
賣盤
26¢ 5,165.87
27¢ 210
28¢ 210
29¢ 100
30¢ 200
價格歷史
區間: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:24:12 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:26:09 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:28:22 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:30:12 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:32:08 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:34:11 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:36:08 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:38:10 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:40:12 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:10 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:44:08 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:11 25¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 06:03:26
No clear edge at current price. The contract is near fair for a distant binary tail event, with balanced price action and only modest orderbook skew.
Yes ↑ +2% 8/3/2026, 00:04:08
Small positive edge on Yes at a low entry price with ample time remaining. Orderbook is tight and the long-horizon binary tail risk supports a modest long position.
Yes ↑ +2% 8/2/2026, 18:03:37
The contract is fairly efficient around 24-25c, and the orderbook/liquidity do not show a strong enough mispricing to justify a trade.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/2/2026, 12:03:55
No clear edge versus current pricing; orderbook leans No, but the contract already reflects that and price action is stale.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · No 8/3/2026, 14:52:30
$39,451 75¢
買入 · No 8/3/2026, 14:40:30
$17,250 75¢