Yes ↓ -4% 2026/10/5 00:07:20
The model estimates Yes below the roughly 21% market price, given the narrow event definition and limited time remaining, but geopolitical tail risk leaves substantial uncertainty.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
模型傾向：看低
觀望：價格接近合理值執行狀態
待確認
模型偏差 Yes ↓ -4%
置信度 52%
模型運行時價格 21¢ 模型運行: 2026/10/5 00:07:20
即時最佳賣價 22¢ 即時更新: 2026/10/5 02:40:28
保守凱利參考 — 暫不計算 · 目前模型版本至少需要 30 個已結算樣本、Brier 分數 ≤ 0.25，且低於市場機率基準
模型 OpenAI
At roughly 21% market probability, Yes appears modestly overpriced: the qualifying definition requires direct use of force, and only about two months remain. Escalation risk is real, so the estimate is uncertain; verified direct engagement would materially change it.
觀察觸發點
- Verified direct use of force between NATO and Russian forces
- A material escalation or de-escalation in NATO-Russia tensions
- Time passing without a qualifying encounter
為何仍需確認
At roughly 21% market probability, Yes appears modestly overpriced: the qualifying definition requires direct use of force, and only about two months remain. Escalation risk is real, so the estimate is uncertain; verified direct engagement would materially change it.
重新評估條件
Verified direct use of force between NATO and Russian forces · A material escalation or de-escalation in NATO-Russia tensions · Time passing without a qualifying encounter
執行約束
價格 22¢ · 價差 2 pts · 流動性 $116,682。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/10/5 02:40:28
使用 6h 區間的價格動量與波動率，結合目前盤口深度、價差及流動性；不是 AI 機率預測，可能與模型觀點不同。
價格與盤口規則
觀察最佳賣價 ?
22¢24h 成交量 ?
$9,868流動性 ?
$116,682未平倉量 ?
$1,266,929價差 ?
2¢深度不平衡 ?
48.8%動量 ?
-2.3%波動率 ?
0.2%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 目前未觸發方向性規則
規則說明
- 價格動量與盤口深度未同時達到方向性閾值。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
20¢ 6,708.32
19¢ 21,111.72
18¢ 24,738.31
17¢ 95,895.55
16¢ 1,915
賣盤
22¢ 6,110.04
23¢ 23,065.09
24¢ 10,574.37
25¢ 11,646.66
26¢ 400
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/10/5 02:19:16 21¢
2026/10/5 02:21:16 21¢
2026/10/5 02:23:16 21¢
2026/10/5 02:25:12 21¢
2026/10/5 02:27:11 21¢
2026/10/5 02:29:32 21¢
2026/10/5 02:31:16 21¢
2026/10/5 02:33:16 21¢
2026/10/5 02:35:17 21¢
2026/10/5 02:37:14 21¢
2026/10/5 02:39:15 21¢
2026/10/5 02:40:12 21¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↓ -2% 2026/10/3 06:09:02
The Yes price appears modestly above an estimated 18% fair probability, though geopolitical risk and limited time-sensitive evidence make the edge uncertain.
Yes ↓ -2% 2026/10/2 12:05:39
The Yes price appears modestly above an estimated 20.5% fair probability.
Yes ↓ -4% 2026/9/30 00:06:45
The model places Yes near 23% versus a 26.5% quote, indicating a modest negative divergence.
Yes ↓ -5% 2026/9/29 18:06:49
The Yes price appears modestly above a roughly 22% fair estimate; uncertainty is substantial, and direct armed engagement or material de-escalation would warrant reassessment.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交目前 24h 快取中暫無相關大額成交。