Yes ↑ +8% 2026/9/18 06:03:04
Yes appears modestly underpriced for a multi-month downside-touch event, though the estimate is sensitive to BTC's current distance from $50,000 and changing volatility.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
模型傾向：看高
觀察觸發點執行狀態
待確認
模型偏差 Yes ↑ +8%
置信度 58%
模型運行時價格 12¢ 模型運行: 2026/9/18 06:03:04
即時最佳賣價 10¢ 即時更新: 2026/9/18 09:22:37
模型 OpenAI
The Yes price is 0.12, while the long time window and demonstrated recent downside momentum suggest a materially higher chance of at least one brief BTC move to $50,000. Uncertainty remains high because the current BTC level and macro path are not provided.
觀察觸發點
- Reassess after a major BTC spot move
- Reassess if implied probability exceeds 25%
- Monitor volatility and macro catalysts
為何仍需確認
The Yes price is 0.12, while the long time window and demonstrated recent downside momentum suggest a materially higher chance of at least one brief BTC move to $50,000. Uncertainty remains high because the current BTC level and macro path are not provided.
重新評估條件
Reassess after a major BTC spot move · Reassess if implied probability exceeds 25% · Monitor volatility and macro catalysts
執行約束
價格 10¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $186,099。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/9/18 09:22:37
模型觀點
偏向下行最佳賣價 ?
10¢24h 成交量 ?
$14,903流動性 ?
$186,099未平倉量 ?
$12,424,379價差 ?
1¢深度不平衡 ?
-41.7%動量 ?
-24.0%波動率 ?
1.1%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 動量下行
- 賣盤深度占優
- 價差不大（<=2¢）
規則說明
- 動量 = 選定區間內的價格變化，負值代表下行。
- 深度不平衡比較買賣盤總量，負值代表賣盤占優。
- 價差 = 最佳賣價 - 最佳買價，越小越容易進出。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
9¢ 10
8¢ 1,043.43
7¢ 5,735.99
6¢ 4,049.99
5¢ 3,322.48
賣盤
10¢ 367
11¢ 1,847.14
12¢ 8,399
13¢ 23,399
14¢ 430.86
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/9/18 08:59:14 10.5¢
2026/9/18 09:01:13 10.5¢
2026/9/18 09:03:15 10.5¢
2026/9/18 09:05:24 10.5¢
2026/9/18 09:07:09 10.5¢
2026/9/18 09:09:13 10.5¢
2026/9/18 09:11:10 9.5¢
2026/9/18 09:13:13 9.5¢
2026/9/18 09:15:16 9.5¢
2026/9/18 09:17:13 9.5¢
2026/9/18 09:19:13 9.5¢
2026/9/18 09:20:13 9.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↑ +7% 2026/9/18 00:03:07
The model estimates the Yes probability modestly above the 13% market price, but the edge is uncertain because resolution depends on a distant, path-dependent price event.
Yes ↑ +8% 2026/9/17 18:03:20
Yes appears modestly underpriced relative to the estimated event probability, but the estimate is uncertain and should be revisited if BTC volatility, price level, or market-implied probability.
Yes ↑ +12% 2026/9/17 12:03:53
The model sees the Yes outcome as modestly underpriced relative to its estimated probability, despite short-term bearish momentum and pronounced sell-side depth.
Yes ↑ +7% 2026/9/17 06:03:51
The model sees a modest positive probability gap for Yes, supported by the extended resolution window and recurring volatility.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交賣出 · Yes 2026/9/18 08:06:39
$5,393 5¢