Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 18:03:26
No strong edge: Yes is already near the upper end of the implied range, spreads are tight, and recent price action is stable. Any upside seems mostly priced in, while regime-change risk exists but ...
統一市場視圖
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
在一個頁面查看模型觀點、訂單簿、價格歷史和相關鯨魚流向。
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
決策狀態
觀察觸發點
觀望
模型偏差 Yes ↓ -3%
置信度 62%
模型運行時價格 84.6¢ 模型運行: 8/3/2026, 18:03:26
即時最佳賣價 84.6¢ 即時更新: 8/3/2026, 18:49:31
模型 gpt-5.4-mini
No strong edge: Yes is already near the upper end of the implied range, spreads are tight, and recent price action is stable. Any upside seems mostly priced in, while regime-change risk exists but ...
觀察觸發點
- High implied Yes price
- Tight spread and good liquidity
- Stable short-term history
為何暫不行動
No strong edge: Yes is already near the upper end of the implied range, spreads are tight, and recent price action is stable. Any upside seems mostly priced in, while regime-change risk exists but ...
重新評估條件
High implied Yes price · Tight spread and good liquidity · Stable short-term history
執行約束
價格 84.6¢ · 價差 0.7 pts · 流動性 $70,100。僅在模型觀點與市場盤口一致時行動。
概要
更新時間 8/3/2026, 18:49:31
操作建議
觀望最佳賣價 ?
84.6¢24h 成交量 ?
$21,250流動性 ?
$70,100未平倉量 ?
—價差 ?
0.7¢深度不平衡 ?
-43.7%動量 ?
0.0%波動率 ?
0.0%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 暫無明顯優勢
規則說明
- 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
83.9¢ 14
83.8¢ 104
83.7¢ 504.37
83.6¢ 639.98
83.5¢ 12.72
賣盤
84.6¢ 528.91
84.7¢ 2,258.21
84.8¢ 200
85¢ 215.05
85.1¢ 55.5
價格歷史
區間: 6h
8/3/2026, 18:24:10 84.2¢
8/3/2026, 18:26:07 84.2¢
8/3/2026, 18:28:09 84.2¢
8/3/2026, 18:30:10 84.2¢
8/3/2026, 18:32:09 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 18:34:09 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 18:36:07 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 18:38:10 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 18:40:20 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 18:42:09 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 18:44:09 84.25¢
8/3/2026, 18:45:07 84.25¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↓ -2% 8/3/2026, 12:03:05
Price appears a bit stretched versus the incremental info available; upside is capped near current consensus and downside risk is slightly better than the market implies.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 06:03:13
The market is liquid and tightly priced, but the strong bullish trend is mostly reflected in the quote, leaving no clear edge at current levels.
Yes ↑ +2% 8/3/2026, 00:03:14
No clear pricing dislocation: Yes is already expensive, recent price action is stable, and orderbook support is balanced enough to avoid a strong entry signal.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/2/2026, 18:02:54
The Yes contract is fairly priced to slightly rich versus the current evidence. Liquidity is good, but there is no clear mispricing large enough to justify a directional trade.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · Yes 8/3/2026, 06:11:51
$10,000 83.77¢