Yes ↑ +1% 2026/9/17 18:03:02
Yes appears modestly undervalued, supported by bid-heavy depth and the long resolution window.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
模型傾向：看高
觀望：價格接近合理值執行狀態
待確認
模型偏差 Yes ↑ +1%
置信度 55%
模型運行時價格 17¢ 模型運行: 2026/9/17 18:03:02
即時最佳賣價 18¢ 即時更新: 2026/9/17 20:43:20
模型 OpenAI
The Yes price near 0.175 appears slightly below a model estimate around 0.185, with substantial time remaining for traffic normalization. Strong bid depth supports the downside-protected view, but the threshold is demanding and recent prices are flat, limiting confidence.
觀察觸發點
- New Portwatch data shows sustained traffic recovery
- Price rises materially above estimated fair value
- Traffic disruptions persist or worsen
為何仍需確認
The Yes price near 0.175 appears slightly below a model estimate around 0.185, with substantial time remaining for traffic normalization. Strong bid depth supports the downside-protected view, but the threshold is demanding and recent prices are flat, limiting confidence.
重新評估條件
New Portwatch data shows sustained traffic recovery · Price rises materially above estimated fair value · Traffic disruptions persist or worsen
執行約束
價格 18¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $480,334。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/9/17 20:43:20
模型觀點
觀察最佳賣價 ?
18¢24h 成交量 ?
$29,730流動性 ?
$480,334未平倉量 ?
$1,666,142價差 ?
1¢深度不平衡 ?
75.5%動量 ?
0.0%波動率 ?
0.0%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 暫無明顯優勢
規則說明
- 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
17¢ 32,295.36
16¢ 166,242.02
15¢ 200,586.12
14¢ 690,992.84
13¢ 11,985.58
賣盤
18¢ 36,567.79
19¢ 43,220.79
20¢ 45,343.47
21¢ 24,490.94
22¢ 4,459.76
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/9/17 20:20:15 17.5¢
2026/9/17 20:22:13 17.5¢
2026/9/17 20:24:13 17.5¢
2026/9/17 20:26:13 17.5¢
2026/9/17 20:28:14 17.5¢
2026/9/17 20:30:15 17.5¢
2026/9/17 20:32:26 17.5¢
2026/9/17 20:34:13 17.5¢
2026/9/17 20:36:17 17.5¢
2026/9/17 20:38:13 17.5¢
2026/9/17 20:40:15 17.5¢
2026/9/17 20:41:29 17.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↑ +3% 2026/9/17 12:03:32
Yes appears modestly below estimated fair value, but the edge is limited because resolution depends on a specific IMF Portwatch threshold and future regional conditions.
Yes → 0% 2026/9/17 06:03:30
No clear divergence from the market-implied probability is detected. Reassess if IMF Portwatch reports sustained transit recovery, a qualifying 7-day average, or material repricing with new data.
Yes ↑ +2% 2026/9/17 00:04:27
Yes appears slightly underpriced, but the edge is limited and highly sensitive to future disruptions and the definition of a qualifying seven-day average.
Yes ↑ +1% 2026/9/16 18:03:31
No clear divergence is detected: the estimated probability is only slightly above the market price, while orderbook depth and recent trends provide mixed evidence.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交目前 24h 快取中暫無相關大額成交。