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統一市場視圖

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

在一個頁面查看模型觀點、訂單簿、價格歷史和相關鯨魚流向。

研究邊界

這是市場情報,不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。

模型方向

模型傾向:看高

觀望:價格接近合理值
執行狀態
待確認
模型偏差 Yes ↑ +1%
置信度 55%
模型運行時價格 17¢ 模型運行: 2026/9/17 18:03:02
即時最佳賣價 18¢ 即時更新: 2026/9/17 19:52:16
模型 OpenAI

The Yes price near 0.175 appears slightly below a model estimate around 0.185, with substantial time remaining for traffic normalization. Strong bid depth supports the downside-protected view, but the threshold is demanding and recent prices are flat, limiting confidence.

觀察觸發點
  • New Portwatch data shows sustained traffic recovery
  • Price rises materially above estimated fair value
  • Traffic disruptions persist or worsen
為何仍需確認

The Yes price near 0.175 appears slightly below a model estimate around 0.185, with substantial time remaining for traffic normalization. Strong bid depth supports the downside-protected view, but the threshold is demanding and recent prices are flat, limiting confidence.

重新評估條件

New Portwatch data shows sustained traffic recovery · Price rises materially above estimated fair value · Traffic disruptions persist or worsen

執行約束

價格 18¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $493,679。模型觀點僅供研究,請結合即時盤口獨立核實。

概要

更新時間 2026/9/17 19:52:16

模型觀點

觀察

最佳賣價 ?

18¢

24h 成交量 ?

$29,720

流動性 ?

$493,679

未平倉量 ?

$1,666,142

價差 ?

深度不平衡 ?

75.0%

動量 ?

0.0%

波動率 ?

0.0%

趨勢斜率 ?

-0

原因

  • 暫無明顯優勢

規則說明

  • 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。

訂單簿

Outcome Yes

買盤

17¢ 32,531.27
16¢ 67,894.84
15¢ 137,000.76
14¢ 824,344.52
13¢ 11,986.52

賣盤

18¢ 36,251.79
19¢ 43,422.18
20¢ 44,962.47
21¢ 24,440.94
22¢ 4,459.76

價格歷史

區間: 6h

2026/9/17 19:28:16 17.5¢
2026/9/17 19:30:15 17.5¢
2026/9/17 19:32:13 17.5¢
2026/9/17 19:34:14 17.5¢
2026/9/17 19:36:28 17.5¢
2026/9/17 19:38:13 17.5¢
2026/9/17 19:40:26 17.5¢
2026/9/17 19:42:14 17.5¢
2026/9/17 19:44:14 17.5¢
2026/9/17 19:46:14 17.5¢
2026/9/17 19:48:13 17.5¢
2026/9/17 19:49:14 17.5¢

預測歷史

完整歷史
Yes ↑ +1% 2026/9/17 18:03:02

Yes appears modestly undervalued, supported by bid-heavy depth and the long resolution window.

Yes ↑ +3% 2026/9/17 12:03:32

Yes appears modestly below estimated fair value, but the edge is limited because resolution depends on a specific IMF Portwatch threshold and future regional conditions.

Yes → 0% 2026/9/17 06:03:30

No clear divergence from the market-implied probability is detected. Reassess if IMF Portwatch reports sustained transit recovery, a qualifying 7-day average, or material repricing with new data.

Yes ↑ +2% 2026/9/17 00:04:27

Yes appears slightly underpriced, but the edge is limited and highly sensitive to future disruptions and the definition of a qualifying seven-day average.

Yes ↑ +1% 2026/9/16 18:03:31

No clear divergence is detected: the estimated probability is only slightly above the market price, while orderbook depth and recent trends provide mixed evidence.

相關鯨魚流向

全部成交

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