模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
27¢
The market prices a ceasefire agreement at about 27%, while the long time horizon and possibility of renewed negotiations support a modestly higher estimated probability. Recent sharp gains and elevated volatility reduce confidence; reassess after material diplomatic or military developments.
說明 edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 A mutually announced negotiation framework · A dated ceasefire commitment from both sides · Major escalation or breakdown in talks
Yes 看漲 ↑ 預測偏差
+3% 置信度
58%
The market prices a ceasefire agreement at about 27%, while the long time horizon and possibility of renewed negotiations support a modestly higher estimated probability. Recent sharp gains and elevated volatility reduce confidence; reassess after material diplomatic or military developments.