Yes ↓ -7% 8/3/2026, 12:01:14
Yes is slightly cheaper than a pure coin-flip view might suggest, but the edge is small and policy-path uncertainty is high this far out. The tight spread and balanced book do not justify an aggres...
統一市場視圖
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
在一個頁面查看模型觀點、訂單簿、價格歷史和相關鯨魚流向。
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
決策狀態
觀察觸發點
觀望
模型偏差 Yes ↓ -7%
置信度 62%
模型運行時價格 43¢ 模型運行: 8/3/2026, 12:01:14
即時最佳賣價 43¢ 即時更新: 8/3/2026, 17:48:53
模型 gpt-5.4-mini
Yes is slightly cheaper than a pure coin-flip view might suggest, but the edge is small and policy-path uncertainty is high this far out. The tight spread and balanced book do not justify an aggres...
觀察觸發點
- Best ask near 0.43
- Small positive recent momentum in Yes
- Book still shows No as favored
為何暫不行動
Yes is slightly cheaper than a pure coin-flip view might suggest, but the edge is small and policy-path uncertainty is high this far out. The tight spread and balanced book do not justify an aggres...
重新評估條件
Best ask near 0.43 · Small positive recent momentum in Yes · Book still shows No as favored
執行約束
價格 43¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $493,359。僅在模型觀點與市場盤口一致時行動。
概要
更新時間 8/3/2026, 17:48:53
操作建議
觀望最佳賣價 ?
43¢24h 成交量 ?
$202,191流動性 ?
$493,359未平倉量 ?
—價差 ?
1¢深度不平衡 ?
60.1%動量 ?
0.0%波動率 ?
0.0%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 暫無明顯優勢
規則說明
- 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
42¢ 36,422.94
41¢ 106,063.11
40¢ 346,710.56
39¢ 123,106.64
38¢ 58,681.98
賣盤
43¢ 59,144.66
44¢ 39,926.52
45¢ 35,109.26
46¢ 25,788.61
47¢ 7,400.1
價格歷史
區間: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:26:08 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:28:21 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:30:10 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:32:07 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:34:10 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:36:07 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:38:09 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:40:10 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:09 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:44:07 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:46:09 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:47:09 42.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 06:01:20
The Yes contract looks slightly rich versus my estimate, with limited upside and a relatively tight spread making a short sale more attractive than buying.
Yes ↑ +3% 8/3/2026, 00:01:32
Small positive edge on Yes with strong bid support, though the spread and event uncertainty limit conviction.
Yes ↓ -4% 8/2/2026, 18:01:11
Slight bearish edge on Yes with strong ask-side pressure and recent fade from 0.415 to 0.405.
Yes ↓ -5% 8/2/2026, 12:02:07
No strong informational drift: price has been range-bound, spread is tight, and liquidity is ample. The current quote already reflects a balanced baseline, so there is no clear mispricing to exploit.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · Yes 8/3/2026, 11:28:32
$5,400 42¢
買入 · Yes 8/3/2026, 00:14:26
$6,150 41¢
賣出 · Yes 8/2/2026, 22:46:27
$16,271 41¢