Yes ↓ -1% 8/3/2026, 18:01:22
No clear edge versus the 43c ask; liquidity is good and prices are tightly ranged, but the implied probability is already near fair with only a slight lean against Yes.
統一市場視圖
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
在一個頁面查看模型觀點、訂單簿、價格歷史和相關鯨魚流向。
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
決策狀態
觀望：價格接近合理值
觀望
模型偏差 Yes ↓ -1%
置信度 64%
模型運行時價格 43¢ 模型運行: 8/3/2026, 18:01:22
即時最佳賣價 43¢ 即時更新: 8/3/2026, 18:50:46
模型 gpt-5.4-mini
No clear edge versus the 43c ask; liquidity is good and prices are tightly ranged, but the implied probability is already near fair with only a slight lean against Yes.
觀察觸發點
- Best ask at 0.43
- Flat 1h/6h history
- Only minor 1d/1w drift
為何暫不行動
No clear edge versus the 43c ask; liquidity is good and prices are tightly ranged, but the implied probability is already near fair with only a slight lean against Yes.
重新評估條件
Best ask at 0.43 · Flat 1h/6h history · Only minor 1d/1w drift
執行約束
價格 43¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $477,785。僅在模型觀點與市場盤口一致時行動。
概要
更新時間 8/3/2026, 18:50:46
操作建議
觀望最佳賣價 ?
43¢24h 成交量 ?
$146,368流動性 ?
$477,785未平倉量 ?
—價差 ?
1¢深度不平衡 ?
62.7%動量 ?
0.0%波動率 ?
0.0%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 暫無明顯優勢
規則說明
- 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
42¢ 48,927.94
41¢ 100,233.45
40¢ 338,784.13
39¢ 122,065.64
38¢ 59,181.98
賣盤
43¢ 53,700.36
44¢ 33,843.76
45¢ 32,827.56
46¢ 25,676.61
47¢ 7,400.1
價格歷史
區間: 6h
8/3/2026, 18:28:09 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:30:11 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:32:09 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:34:10 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:36:07 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:38:10 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:40:20 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:42:09 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:44:10 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:46:10 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:48:10 42.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:49:10 42.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↓ -7% 8/3/2026, 12:01:14
Yes is slightly cheaper than a pure coin-flip view might suggest, but the edge is small and policy-path uncertainty is high this far out. The tight spread and balanced book do not justify an aggres...
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 06:01:20
The Yes contract looks slightly rich versus my estimate, with limited upside and a relatively tight spread making a short sale more attractive than buying.
Yes ↑ +3% 8/3/2026, 00:01:32
Small positive edge on Yes with strong bid support, though the spread and event uncertainty limit conviction.
Yes ↓ -4% 8/2/2026, 18:01:11
Slight bearish edge on Yes with strong ask-side pressure and recent fade from 0.415 to 0.405.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · Yes 8/3/2026, 11:28:32
$5,400 42¢
買入 · Yes 8/3/2026, 00:14:26
$6,150 41¢
賣出 · Yes 8/2/2026, 22:46:27
$16,271 41¢