Yes ↓ -6% 8/3/2026, 18:00:51
Current price looks a bit above fair value given recent downside momentum and stronger bid support on No.
統一市場視圖
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
在一個頁面查看模型觀點、訂單簿、價格歷史和相關鯨魚流向。
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
決策狀態
觀察觸發點
觀望
模型偏差 Yes ↓ -6%
置信度 66%
模型運行時價格 56¢ 模型運行: 8/3/2026, 18:00:51
即時最佳賣價 56¢ 即時更新: 8/3/2026, 18:50:20
模型 gpt-5.4-mini
Current price looks a bit above fair value given recent downside momentum and stronger bid support on No.
觀察觸發點
- Yes best ask 0.56 is rich vs drift
- No side has stronger depth
- 1d price fell from 0.585 to 0.555
為何暫不行動
Current price looks a bit above fair value given recent downside momentum and stronger bid support on No.
重新評估條件
Yes best ask 0.56 is rich vs drift · No side has stronger depth · 1d price fell from 0.585 to 0.555
執行約束
價格 56¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $539,510。僅在模型觀點與市場盤口一致時行動。
概要
更新時間 8/3/2026, 18:50:20
操作建議
賣出最佳賣價 ?
56¢24h 成交量 ?
$216,074流動性 ?
$539,510未平倉量 ?
—價差 ?
1¢深度不平衡 ?
-63.2%動量 ?
-1.8%波動率 ?
0.1%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 動量下行
- 賣盤深度占優
- 價差不大（<=2¢）
規則說明
- 動量 = 選定區間內的價格變化，負值代表下行。
- 深度不平衡比較買賣盤總量，負值代表賣盤占優。
- 價差 = 最佳賣價 - 最佳買價，越小越容易進出。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
55¢ 9,170.5
54¢ 28,236.96
53¢ 49,763.01
52¢ 20,461.4
51¢ 25,326.08
賣盤
56¢ 53,609.29
57¢ 52,543.06
58¢ 334,434.8
59¢ 88,656.4
60¢ 60,763.85
價格歷史
區間: 6h
8/3/2026, 18:29:09 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:31:09 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:33:08 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:35:06 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:37:10 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:39:09 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:41:06 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:43:09 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:45:06 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:47:09 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:49:09 55.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:50:08 55.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↑ +1% 8/3/2026, 12:01:00
Price sits near my fair value with a tight spread and no decisive orderbook or trend signal. Edge is too small to justify a trade.
Yes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 06:01:01
Slight negative edge on Yes at current price; the market appears to be pricing a higher hike probability than fundamentals and orderbook support.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 00:01:26
Slight bearish edge versus current Yes price; liquidity is strong and spread is tight, but the book/price action point modestly lower.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/2/2026, 18:01:52
Slight bearish edge versus current Yes price, with liquidity favoring sellers and no strong upward momentum.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · Yes 8/3/2026, 14:01:02
$11,400 57¢
賣出 · Yes 8/3/2026, 04:02:09
$12,799 56.27¢
買入 · Yes 8/3/2026, 03:48:44
$11,804 58¢
買入 · Yes 8/2/2026, 22:57:53
$7,488 57¢