模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
到期前 當前價
16¢
The market implies roughly a 16–17% probability, while the long time horizon leaves meaningful scope for a mutually agreed ceasefire lasting at least 10 days.
說明 edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Credible reports of formal bilateral negotiations · A mutually announced ceasefire lasting 10 days · Major escalation or breakdown in diplomacy
Yes 看漲 ↑ 預測偏差
+6% 置信度
58%
The market implies roughly a 16–17% probability, while the long time horizon leaves meaningful scope for a mutually agreed ceasefire lasting at least 10 days.