Yes ↓ -5% 8/3/2026, 12:03:41
Current price looks broadly efficient; small bearish lean on Yes is offset by long horizon and meaningful uncertainty.
統一市場視圖
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?
在一個頁面查看模型觀點、訂單簿、價格歷史和相關鯨魚流向。
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
決策狀態
觀望：盤口風險
觀望
模型偏差 Yes ↓ -5%
置信度 63%
模型運行時價格 23¢ 模型運行: 8/3/2026, 12:03:41
即時最佳賣價 26¢ 即時更新: 8/3/2026, 17:47:02
模型 gpt-5.4-mini
Current price looks broadly efficient; small bearish lean on Yes is offset by long horizon and meaningful uncertainty.
觀察觸發點
- Best ask only 0.23 with modest edge
- Bid depth is much smaller than ask depth
- 6h and 1d history trend slightly lower
為何暫不行動
Current price looks broadly efficient; small bearish lean on Yes is offset by long horizon and meaningful uncertainty.
重新評估條件
Best ask only 0.23 with modest edge · Bid depth is much smaller than ask depth · 6h and 1d history trend slightly lower
執行約束
價格 26¢ · 價差 2 pts · 流動性 $17,418。僅在模型觀點與市場盤口一致時行動。
概要
更新時間 8/3/2026, 17:47:02
操作建議
觀望最佳賣價 ?
26¢24h 成交量 ?
$1,007流動性 ?
$17,418未平倉量 ?
—價差 ?
3¢深度不平衡 ?
58.8%動量 ?
11.1%波動率 ?
1.2%趨勢斜率 ?
0原因
- 暫無明顯優勢
規則說明
- 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
24¢ 126.16
23¢ 106.15
22¢ 1,796.5
21¢ 205.6
20¢ 200
賣盤
27¢ 385.91
28¢ 120
29¢ 5
30¢ 100
31¢ 20
價格歷史
區間: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:24:11 25.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:26:08 25.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:28:21 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:30:11 25.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:32:07 25.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:34:10 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:36:07 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:38:09 25.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:40:11 25.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:09 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:44:08 25¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:10 25¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↓ -2% 8/3/2026, 06:03:33
The Yes contract looks slightly overpriced versus the low-probability tail risk of a 1250 ETH print before expiry.
Yes ↓ -5% 8/3/2026, 00:03:45
Price is already near a reasonable estimate for this rare tail event, and the orderbook/liquidity do not show a strong mispricing signal.
Yes ↓ -5% 8/2/2026, 18:03:25
Market appears a bit overpriced versus the low-probability tail event, with No carrying stronger depth and Yes lacking momentum.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/2/2026, 12:03:43
No clear edge versus the 0.24 ask; the event needs an extreme ETH downside tail, which current pricing already largely discounts.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交目前 24h 快取中暫無相關大額成交。