Yes ↓ -4% 2026/9/18 06:00:30
Yes appears slightly above model fair value near the current midpoint, with bearish momentum and pronounced ask-side depth.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
模型傾向：看低
觀察觸發點執行狀態
待確認
模型偏差 Yes ↓ -4%
置信度 56%
模型運行時價格 50¢ 模型運行: 2026/9/18 06:00:30
即時最佳賣價 48¢ 即時更新: 2026/9/18 09:19:26
模型 OpenAI
The market prices no October 2026 rate change at about 50%, but the sharp one-week decline, persistent recent weakness, and heavy sell-side depth suggest the fair probability is modestly lower. Confidence is limited because the meeting is distant and no macroeconomic path is provided.
觀察觸發點
- Reprice after major inflation or labor data
- Fed guidance shifts toward a hold
- Yes probability falls below 45%
為何仍需確認
The market prices no October 2026 rate change at about 50%, but the sharp one-week decline, persistent recent weakness, and heavy sell-side depth suggest the fair probability is modestly lower. Confidence is limited because the meeting is distant and no macroeconomic path is provided.
重新評估條件
Reprice after major inflation or labor data · Fed guidance shifts toward a hold · Yes probability falls below 45%
執行約束
價格 48¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $387,348。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/9/18 09:19:26
模型觀點
偏向下行最佳賣價 ?
48¢24h 成交量 ?
$460,563流動性 ?
$387,348未平倉量 ?
$1,654,248價差 ?
1¢深度不平衡 ?
-79.8%動量 ?
-4.0%波動率 ?
0.2%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 動量下行
- 賣盤深度占優
- 價差不大（<=2¢）
規則說明
- 動量 = 選定區間內的價格變化，負值代表下行。
- 深度不平衡比較買賣盤總量，負值代表賣盤占優。
- 價差 = 最佳賣價 - 最佳買價，越小越容易進出。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
47¢ 6,534.47
46¢ 17,687.44
45¢ 15,348.25
44¢ 2,228
43¢ 400
賣盤
48¢ 18,890.03
49¢ 35,167.38
50¢ 67,044.64
51¢ 244,750.61
52¢ 9,181.46
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/9/18 08:53:13 49.5¢
2026/9/18 08:55:09 49.5¢
2026/9/18 08:57:13 49.5¢
2026/9/18 08:59:14 48.5¢
2026/9/18 09:01:14 47.5¢
2026/9/18 09:03:15 47.5¢
2026/9/18 09:05:25 47.5¢
2026/9/18 09:07:10 47.5¢
2026/9/18 09:09:13 47.5¢
2026/9/18 09:11:10 47.5¢
2026/9/18 09:13:13 47.5¢
2026/9/18 09:14:13 47.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↓ -3% 2026/9/18 00:00:21
Market pricing is close to balanced, but momentum and orderbook depth modestly favor a lower probability of no change.
Yes ↓ -4% 2026/9/17 18:00:20
Yes appears modestly overpriced relative to the recent momentum and orderbook imbalance, though the estimate is uncertain because no current policy or macro fundamentals are provided.
Yes ↓ -2% 2026/9/17 12:00:22
Yes appears slightly above estimated fair value after a sustained downward repricing, though the remaining edge is small and data is largely market-derived.
Yes → 0% 2026/9/17 06:00:24
No clear mispricing is detected: momentum favors No change while short-term stabilization and balanced pricing limit conviction.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · No 2026/9/18 08:58:04
$5,720 52¢
買入 · No 2026/9/18 08:57:06
$7,575 51¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/18 08:56:24
$18,870 51¢
買入 · No 2026/9/17 23:34:24
$5,610 51¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/17 23:34:04
$8,791 51¢
買入 · No 2026/9/17 23:09:54
$5,100 51¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/17 23:09:07
$19,919 50.07¢
賣出 · No 2026/9/17 22:21:07
$10,792 51¢