Yes ↓ -4% 2026/9/17 18:00:20
Yes appears modestly overpriced relative to the recent momentum and orderbook imbalance, though the estimate is uncertain because no current policy or macro fundamentals are provided.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
模型傾向：看高
觀察觸發點執行狀態
待確認
模型偏差 Yes ↓ -4%
置信度 62%
模型運行時價格 53¢ 模型運行: 2026/9/17 18:00:20
即時最佳賣價 49¢ 即時更新: 2026/9/17 20:48:58
模型 OpenAI
The market prices No change near 53%, but Yes has fallen sharply over one day and one week, with heavier ask-side depth indicating continued selling pressure. The available evidence places Yes modestly below its current implied probability; this view should be revisited after new macro data or a sustained reversal.
觀察觸發點
- Sustained Yes rebound above 0.56
- New Fed policy guidance
- Major inflation or employment surprise
為何仍需確認
The market prices No change near 53%, but Yes has fallen sharply over one day and one week, with heavier ask-side depth indicating continued selling pressure. The available evidence places Yes modestly below its current implied probability; this view should be revisited after new macro data or a sustained reversal.
重新評估條件
Sustained Yes rebound above 0.56 · New Fed policy guidance · Major inflation or employment surprise
執行約束
價格 49¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $393,847。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/9/17 20:48:58
模型觀點
偏向下行最佳賣價 ?
49¢24h 成交量 ?
$595,224流動性 ?
$393,847未平倉量 ?
$1,623,905價差 ?
1¢深度不平衡 ?
-81.9%動量 ?
-7.6%波動率 ?
0.3%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 動量下行
- 賣盤深度占優
- 價差不大（<=2¢）
規則說明
- 動量 = 選定區間內的價格變化，負值代表下行。
- 深度不平衡比較買賣盤總量，負值代表賣盤占優。
- 價差 = 最佳賣價 - 最佳買價，越小越容易進出。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
48¢ 11,974.56
47¢ 17,784.44
46¢ 9,291
45¢ 1,349.25
44¢ 3,300
賣盤
49¢ 16,194.83
50¢ 91,013.69
51¢ 96,654.8
52¢ 135,740.42
53¢ 99,065.03
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/9/17 20:27:13 48.5¢
2026/9/17 20:29:15 48.5¢
2026/9/17 20:31:13 48.5¢
2026/9/17 20:33:09 48.5¢
2026/9/17 20:35:13 48.5¢
2026/9/17 20:37:13 48.5¢
2026/9/17 20:39:14 48.5¢
2026/9/17 20:41:28 48.5¢
2026/9/17 20:43:12 48.5¢
2026/9/17 20:45:14 48.5¢
2026/9/17 20:47:11 48.5¢
2026/9/17 20:48:09 48.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↓ -2% 2026/9/17 12:00:22
Yes appears slightly above estimated fair value after a sustained downward repricing, though the remaining edge is small and data is largely market-derived.
Yes → 0% 2026/9/17 06:00:24
No clear mispricing is detected: momentum favors No change while short-term stabilization and balanced pricing limit conviction.
Yes ↓ -2% 2026/9/17 00:00:32
The primary outcome appears slightly above estimated fair value, creating a modest negative edge.
Yes ↓ -2% 2026/9/16 18:00:56
Yes appears slightly above estimated fair value, but the edge is small and orderbook support is substantial.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · No 2026/9/17 19:12:13
$10,760 50.62¢
買入 · No 2026/9/17 18:43:13
$11,500 50¢
買入 · No 2026/9/17 18:27:45
$13,222 49¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/17 18:03:46
$10,433 48¢
買入 · No 2026/9/17 17:59:18
$14,601 48¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/17 17:02:34
$9,290 47¢
買入 · No 2026/9/17 14:06:45
$10,240 47¢
賣出 · Yes 2026/9/17 13:03:27
$5,927 46¢