模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
31¢
Yes is estimated at roughly 28% versus a market price near 31–34%. The sharp one-day decline, heavy ask depth, and corresponding rise in No indicate weakening momentum, though the long time to expiry leaves substantial uncertainty.
說明 edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Yes rises above 35% · Fresh Fed policy guidance · Inflation or labor data surprises
Yes 看跌 ↓ 預測偏差
-3% 置信度
62%
Yes is estimated at roughly 28% versus a market price near 31–34%. The sharp one-day decline, heavy ask depth, and corresponding rise in No indicate weakening momentum, though the long time to expiry leaves substantial uncertainty.