US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Current pricing looks efficient near 34% with a tight spread and balanced depth. Positive deal momentum exists, but qualification hurdles remain high, limiting clear edge.

Current Yes price looks a bit rich versus the evidence. Orderbook is balanced, but recent price action slopes down and there is no catalyst suggesting near-term breakthrough.

Modest upside edge exists versus current price, but resolution still depends on a concrete final text and formal adoption, so conviction is limited.

Yes appears slightly overpriced relative to the currently available diplomatic status and strict resolution criteria, despite some recent upward drift in the market.

Price has risen over the past day, but the structural hurdle for a qualifying final deal remains high and the book does not show bullish confirmation at this level.