Yes ↑ +1% 8/3/2026, 12:02:57
Price is near fair value with mixed momentum and a balanced-to-bearish short-term book against a still-elevated long-term repricing. No clear edge at the current 0.61 level.
統一市場視圖
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
在一個頁面查看模型觀點、訂單簿、價格歷史和相關鯨魚流向。
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
決策狀態
觀望：價格接近合理值
觀望
模型偏差 Yes ↑ +1%
置信度 54%
模型運行時價格 61¢ 模型運行: 8/3/2026, 12:02:57
即時最佳賣價 49¢ 即時更新: 8/3/2026, 17:47:49
模型 gpt-5.4-mini
Price is near fair value with mixed momentum and a balanced-to-bearish short-term book against a still-elevated long-term repricing. No clear edge at the current 0.61 level.
觀察觸發點
- Best bid/ask already tight
- Short-term momentum is modest
- Orderbook imbalance favors No
為何暫不行動
Price is near fair value with mixed momentum and a balanced-to-bearish short-term book against a still-elevated long-term repricing. No clear edge at the current 0.61 level.
重新評估條件
Best bid/ask already tight · Short-term momentum is modest · Orderbook imbalance favors No
執行約束
價格 49¢ · 價差 4 pts · 流動性 $51,626。僅在模型觀點與市場盤口一致時行動。
概要
更新時間 8/3/2026, 17:47:49
操作建議
觀望最佳賣價 ?
49¢24h 成交量 ?
$38,465流動性 ?
$51,626未平倉量 ?
—價差 ?
2¢深度不平衡 ?
94.5%動量 ?
-18.5%波動率 ?
1.4%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 暫無明顯優勢
規則說明
- 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
48¢ 10
47¢ 3,014.99
46¢ 613.17
45¢ 1,087.5
44¢ 153
賣盤
50¢ 15.77
51¢ 10
52¢ 20
53¢ 60
55¢ 32
價格歷史
區間: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:24:09 47.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:26:07 47.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:28:20 47.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:30:09 47.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:32:06 47.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:34:09 47.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:36:07 44.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:38:09 47.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:40:10 47.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:09 47.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:44:07 49.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:09 50.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↓ -6% 8/3/2026, 06:02:35
Price has rallied sharply over the week but the catalyst required for settlement is still absent, leaving the Yes side modestly overpriced versus the likely no-resolution path.
Yes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 00:02:49
The market is near fair value with tight spread and strong bid depth, but the current price looks close to a reasonable estimate of the event odds, leaving little clear edge.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/2/2026, 18:02:16
Slight bearish edge versus current price, with supportive No-side liquidity and recent short-term cooling after the weekly run-up.
Yes ↓ -12% 8/2/2026, 12:02:19
The Yes side appears overpriced relative to the lack of clear catalysts, while recent price momentum has already run up sharply.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交目前 24h 快取中暫無相關大額成交。