Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Price looks fairly efficient near 22%; orderbook support exists, but recent trend and lack of strong catalyst leave no clear edge at current levels.

Price is close to fair given mixed momentum and no clear catalyst from the orderbook or history to justify a directional trade.

Current price is near fair for a binary event with long-dated, data-dependent resolution and no confirmed operational improvement. Better to wait for actual Portwatch prints than pay up on momentum.

The Yes price looks slightly rich versus the current trend and the still-high bar for resolution; orderbook is balanced enough to allow a small bearish edge.

Small positive edge and supportive orderbook imbalance favor a modest long, though the long-dated resolution and noisy recent drift limit conviction.