Yes ↓ -8% 8/3/2026, 12:01:59
Market pricing appears a bit rich versus the strict resolution standard and the recent price drift favors No.
統一市場視圖
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
在一個頁面查看模型觀點、訂單簿、價格歷史和相關鯨魚流向。
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
決策狀態
行動：賣出
賣出
模型偏差 Yes ↓ -8%
置信度 72%
模型運行時價格 41¢ 模型運行: 8/3/2026, 12:01:59
即時最佳賣價 37¢ 即時更新: 8/3/2026, 17:48:01
模型 gpt-5.4-mini
Market pricing appears a bit rich versus the strict resolution standard and the recent price drift favors No.
觀察觸發點
- Yes trades above estimated fair value
- Strict official-announcement requirement
- Recent downward momentum in Yes
行動依據
Market pricing appears a bit rich versus the strict resolution standard and the recent price drift favors No.
失效觀察點
Yes trades above estimated fair value · Strict official-announcement requirement · Recent downward momentum in Yes
執行約束
價格 37¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $55,802。僅在模型觀點與市場盤口一致時行動。
概要
更新時間 8/3/2026, 17:48:01
操作建議
觀望最佳賣價 ?
37¢24h 成交量 ?
$75,348流動性 ?
$55,802未平倉量 ?
—價差 ?
1¢深度不平衡 ?
87.7%動量 ?
-9.9%波動率 ?
1.5%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 暫無明顯優勢
規則說明
- 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
36¢ 5,341.77
35¢ 376.07
34¢ 4,131.19
33¢ 8,977
32¢ 3,313
賣盤
37¢ 65.53
38¢ 159.99
39¢ 442.09
40¢ 451.5
41¢ 333.5
價格歷史
區間: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:25:12 36¢
8/3/2026, 17:27:11 36¢
8/3/2026, 17:29:11 36¢
8/3/2026, 17:31:11 36¢
8/3/2026, 17:33:10 36¢
8/3/2026, 17:35:11 36¢
8/3/2026, 17:37:11 36.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:39:11 36.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:41:09 36.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:43:11 36.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:11 36.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:46:10 36.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↓ -12% 8/3/2026, 06:01:52
Yes appears slightly overpriced versus the low-likelihood need for a formal official announcement before Aug 15, 2026. Orderbook is somewhat supportive, but not enough to offset the event risk and ...
Yes ↓ -9% 8/3/2026, 00:01:45
The Yes side is overbought relative to the lack of concrete official support. Spread is tight and liquidity is decent, but there is no clear catalyst to justify chasing the move.
Yes ↓ -5% 8/2/2026, 18:01:17
The Yes side has run up sharply on thin evidence, while orderbook is only modestly supportive and spread is tight enough to exit or fade the move.
Yes ↓ -8% 8/2/2026, 12:01:39
Current price likely embeds too much optimism relative to the narrow rule for an official, unambiguous termination announcement.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交目前 24h 快取中暫無相關大額成交。