Yes → 0% 8/3/2026, 12:02:15
Fairly efficient pricing with tight spread and no catalyst edge; recent drift up in Yes is offset by heavy ask depth.
統一市場視圖
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
在一個頁面查看模型觀點、訂單簿、價格歷史和相關鯨魚流向。
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
決策狀態
觀望：價格接近合理值
觀望
模型偏差 Yes → 0%
置信度 57%
模型運行時價格 74¢ 模型運行: 8/3/2026, 12:02:15
即時最佳賣價 76¢ 即時更新: 8/3/2026, 17:47:57
模型 gpt-5.4-mini
Fairly efficient pricing with tight spread and no catalyst edge; recent drift up in Yes is offset by heavy ask depth.
觀察觸發點
- Yes at 0.74 near estimated fair value
- Tight 1-cent spread
- No fresh escalation catalyst
為何暫不行動
Fairly efficient pricing with tight spread and no catalyst edge; recent drift up in Yes is offset by heavy ask depth.
重新評估條件
Yes at 0.74 near estimated fair value · Tight 1-cent spread · No fresh escalation catalyst
執行約束
價格 76¢ · 價差 2 pts · 流動性 $87,385。僅在模型觀點與市場盤口一致時行動。
概要
更新時間 8/3/2026, 17:47:57
操作建議
觀望最佳賣價 ?
76¢24h 成交量 ?
$65,188流動性 ?
$87,385未平倉量 ?
—價差 ?
2¢深度不平衡 ?
-60.2%動量 ?
0.7%波動率 ?
0.2%趨勢斜率 ?
0原因
- 暫無明顯優勢
規則說明
- 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
74¢ 1,774.77
73¢ 1,076.96
72¢ 594.7
71¢ 483.32
70¢ 951.83
賣盤
76¢ 3,539.96
77¢ 14,481.08
78¢ 985
80¢ 210
81¢ 434.44
價格歷史
區間: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:26:08 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:28:21 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:30:10 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:32:07 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:34:10 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:36:07 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:38:09 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:40:11 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:09 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:44:07 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:46:10 75¢
8/3/2026, 17:47:10 75¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↓ -9% 8/3/2026, 06:02:06
Yes looks slightly overpriced relative to the absence of immediate escalation signals; orderbook and recent trade levels suggest limited further upside near current levels.
Yes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 00:02:20
Fairly efficient pricing with wide event uncertainty and no strong orderbook edge; recent momentum is positive for Yes but not enough to justify chasing at 0.74.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交目前 24h 快取中暫無相關大額成交。