US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

Current price looks broadly efficient with modest upside to Yes, but orderbook skew and long-dated uncertainty reduce conviction.

Fairly efficient pricing with tight spread and no catalyst edge; recent drift up in Yes is offset by heavy ask depth.

Yes looks slightly overpriced relative to the absence of immediate escalation signals; orderbook and recent trade levels suggest limited further upside near current levels.

Fairly efficient pricing with wide event uncertainty and no strong orderbook edge; recent momentum is positive for Yes but not enough to justify chasing at 0.74.