Yes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 12:01:52
Slight bearish edge on Yes versus current price. The recent decline and strong No-side depth suggest modest downside unless fresh de-escalation headlines emerge.
統一市場視圖
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
在一個頁面查看模型觀點、訂單簿、價格歷史和相關鯨魚流向。
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
決策狀態
觀察觸發點
觀望
模型偏差 Yes ↓ -4%
置信度 58%
模型運行時價格 69¢ 模型運行: 8/3/2026, 12:01:52
即時最佳賣價 70¢ 即時更新: 8/3/2026, 17:50:05
模型 gpt-5.4-mini
Slight bearish edge on Yes versus current price. The recent decline and strong No-side depth suggest modest downside unless fresh de-escalation headlines emerge.
觀察觸發點
- Yes price slid from 0.695 to 0.675 in 6h
- No has much stronger top-N bid depth
- Spread is tight, so edge is actionable
為何暫不行動
Slight bearish edge on Yes versus current price. The recent decline and strong No-side depth suggest modest downside unless fresh de-escalation headlines emerge.
重新評估條件
Yes price slid from 0.695 to 0.675 in 6h · No has much stronger top-N bid depth · Spread is tight, so edge is actionable
執行約束
價格 70¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $78,341。僅在模型觀點與市場盤口一致時行動。
概要
更新時間 8/3/2026, 17:50:05
操作建議
觀望最佳賣價 ?
70¢24h 成交量 ?
$70,163流動性 ?
$78,341未平倉量 ?
—價差 ?
1¢深度不平衡 ?
-62.6%動量 ?
3.0%波動率 ?
0.2%趨勢斜率 ?
0原因
- 暫無明顯優勢
規則說明
- 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
69¢ 1,960.75
68¢ 2,881.32
67¢ 1,479.99
66¢ 205
65¢ 125.88
賣盤
70¢ 8,559.49
71¢ 14,729.89
72¢ 469.99
73¢ 4,949.79
74¢ 172.17
價格歷史
區間: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:25:10 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:27:10 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:29:10 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:31:10 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:33:09 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:35:10 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:37:10 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:39:10 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:41:08 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:43:10 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:10 69.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:46:10 69.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 06:01:39
The price has drifted up, but the book and recent action do not show a strong enough mispricing to justify a fresh entry at 0.70.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 00:01:51
No clear pricing edge at current levels; liquidity is healthy but the market is already near the upper end of its recent range, so the expected value is roughly fair.
Yes ↓ -4% 8/2/2026, 18:01:29
Current Yes price seems slightly above fair value; momentum is strong but likely overextended relative to near-term orderbook and recent drift.
Yes ↑ +3% 8/2/2026, 12:01:15
Current price looks fairly efficient: momentum favors Yes, but the move is already reflected and spread is tight. No strong mispricing or catalyst visible.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · Yes 8/3/2026, 14:48:38
$6,061 69¢