Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 12:02:30
The Yes side appears slightly overpriced versus the recent downward trend and weak bullish follow-through. Orderbook depth and price action favor fading Yes at current levels.
統一市場視圖
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
在一個頁面查看模型觀點、訂單簿、價格歷史和相關鯨魚流向。
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
決策狀態
觀察觸發點
觀望
模型偏差 Yes ↓ -3%
置信度 74%
模型運行時價格 10¢ 模型運行: 8/3/2026, 12:02:30
即時最佳賣價 9¢ 即時更新: 8/3/2026, 17:49:08
模型 gpt-5.4-mini
The Yes side appears slightly overpriced versus the recent downward trend and weak bullish follow-through. Orderbook depth and price action favor fading Yes at current levels.
觀察觸發點
- Yes at 0.10 vs implied low event odds
- 1d/1w trend down
- No side dominates depth
為何暫不行動
The Yes side appears slightly overpriced versus the recent downward trend and weak bullish follow-through. Orderbook depth and price action favor fading Yes at current levels.
重新評估條件
Yes at 0.10 vs implied low event odds · 1d/1w trend down · No side dominates depth
執行約束
價格 9¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $59,557。僅在模型觀點與市場盤口一致時行動。
概要
更新時間 8/3/2026, 17:49:08
操作建議
觀望最佳賣價 ?
9¢24h 成交量 ?
$69,000流動性 ?
$59,557未平倉量 ?
—價差 ?
1¢深度不平衡 ?
66.4%動量 ?
-5.6%波動率 ?
1.5%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 暫無明顯優勢
規則說明
- 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
8¢ 1,971.81
7¢ 11,039.72
6¢ 5,908.46
5¢ 7,112.09
4¢ 3,180
賣盤
9¢ 1,550.31
10¢ 2,357.53
11¢ 350
12¢ 391
13¢ 1,257.25
價格歷史
區間: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:26:07 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:28:20 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:30:10 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:32:07 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:34:10 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:36:07 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:38:09 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:40:10 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:09 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:44:07 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:46:09 8.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:47:09 8.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 06:01:45
No clear edge versus the 9% price and liquidity is healthy, so the prudent call is to wait rather than chase a low-probability geopolitical event.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 00:01:57
Current Yes price looks roughly efficient: there is some buy-side support, but No remains heavily favored and the market already embeds a low closure probability. No clear mispricing or catalyst ju...
Yes ↓ -3% 8/2/2026, 18:01:23
No clear mispricing: Yes is drifting down, but the spread is tight and the market already prices a low closure probability. Edge is modest at best, so waiting is preferable.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/2/2026, 12:01:09
Price is efficient in a thin event-driven market; the spread is tight but there is no clear mispricing or new closure signal to justify entry.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交目前 24h 快取中暫無相關大額成交。