Yes ↑ +4% 2026/9/21 18:04:17
The primary outcome appears slightly underpriced, though the edge is limited and event resolution depends on a narrowly defined qualifying encounter.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
模型傾向：看高
觀察觸發點執行狀態
待確認
模型偏差 Yes ↑ +4%
置信度 55%
模型運行時價格 18.5¢ 模型運行: 2026/9/21 18:04:17
即時最佳賣價 21¢ 即時更新: 2026/9/21 19:53:40
保守凱利參考 — 暫不計算 · 目前模型版本至少需要 30 個已結算樣本、Brier 分數 ≤ 0.25，且低於市場機率基準
模型 OpenAI
The 18.5% market price appears modestly below a model estimate near 22%, given the long time horizon and persistent NATO-Russia escalation risk. Recent upward momentum and strong bid-side depth support the direction, but strict resolution criteria and substantial uncertainty limit conviction.
觀察觸發點
- Reassess above 25% pricing
- Reassess after credible de-escalation
- Reassess after a qualifying military incident
為何仍需確認
The 18.5% market price appears modestly below a model estimate near 22%, given the long time horizon and persistent NATO-Russia escalation risk. Recent upward momentum and strong bid-side depth support the direction, but strict resolution criteria and substantial uncertainty limit conviction.
重新評估條件
Reassess above 25% pricing · Reassess after credible de-escalation · Reassess after a qualifying military incident
執行約束
價格 21¢ · 價差 3 pts · 流動性 $176,853。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/9/21 19:53:40
模型觀點
觀察最佳賣價 ?
21¢24h 成交量 ?
$205,682流動性 ?
$176,853未平倉量 ?
$952,479價差 ?
3¢深度不平衡 ?
98.4%動量 ?
18.2%波動率 ?
1.7%趨勢斜率 ?
0原因
- 暫無明顯優勢
規則說明
- 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
18¢ 4,978.69
17¢ 79,838.76
16¢ 122,153.47
15¢ 70,802.97
14¢ 277,228.54
賣盤
21¢ 2,508.87
22¢ 1,206
23¢ 338.75
24¢ 405
25¢ 5
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/9/21 19:28:12 20¢
2026/9/21 19:30:13 20¢
2026/9/21 19:32:12 19¢
2026/9/21 19:34:11 19¢
2026/9/21 19:36:15 19.5¢
2026/9/21 19:38:12 19.5¢
2026/9/21 19:40:24 19¢
2026/9/21 19:42:12 19.5¢
2026/9/21 19:44:11 19¢
2026/9/21 19:46:27 19¢
2026/9/21 19:48:12 19.5¢
2026/9/21 19:49:12 19.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · No 2026/9/21 19:06:27
$12,700 81.07¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/21 19:06:15
$10,113 29.5¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/21 19:06:01
$11,541 19.51¢
買入 · No 2026/9/21 12:19:15
$15,919 71¢
賣出 · No 2026/9/21 11:18:05
$10,280 71¢
買入 · No 2026/9/21 11:17:32
$12,881 83¢