Polysage.xyz · 預測歷史

8/21/2026, 00:00:23 gpt-5.4-mini

買賣點觀望時間尺度中線當前價 7.6¢

Current Yes price appears slightly above my estimate; downside is limited but the market still overprices a low-probability, hard-to-qualify event.

說明 edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望

觸發點 Yes bid/ask near 0.08 · Strict resolution standard · No direct escalation catalyst

Yes 看跌 ↓ 預測偏差 -1% 置信度 78%

Yes is priced around 0.08, but the event requires an actual NATO-Russia military encounter before Aug 31, 2026. Risk is real, yet the current price still looks a bit rich given the high evidentiary bar and lack of clear escalation catalyst in the data.

8/20/2026, 18:00:37 gpt-5.4-mini

買賣點觀望時間尺度中線當前價 26.9¢

Small positive edge on Yes, but the market already prices meaningful conflict risk and the spread/liquidity limit conviction.

說明 edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望

觸發點 Yes trades below implied risk · Recent upward trend in conflict pricing · Orderbook bid depth slightly stronger

Yes 看漲 ↑ 預測偏差 +3% 置信度 56%

Price has risen sharply from much lower levels and the book shows some top-level bid support, but the event still requires a rare direct NATO-Russia military encounter. Current 26.9% looks slightly low versus elevated geopolitical risk, though not by much.