2026/9/27 12:04:32 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
56.05¢
The market’s roughly 56% quote seems slightly high given the short remaining window and strict requirement for an explicit official termination announcement. A diplomatic breakthrough could still raise the probability, so the edge is modest.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 An official U.S. announcement explicitly ending or suspending the blockade. · A diplomatic breakthrough or escalation that materially changes the outlook.
Yes 看跌 ↓ 預測偏差
-4% 置信度
56%
The market’s roughly 56% quote seems slightly high given the short remaining window and strict requirement for an explicit official termination announcement. A diplomatic breakthrough could still raise the probability, so the edge is modest.
2026/9/27 06:03:47 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
55.85¢
I estimate Yes at about 50%, below the 55.9% market price. An official end announcement by year-end is plausible, but the remaining time and recent downward price trend do not support the market’s higher probability with confidence.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 An official U.S. announcement ending or suspending the blockade · A confirmed diplomatic agreement affecting the blockade · Official signs of continued or expanded blockade policy
Yes 看跌 ↓ 預測偏差
-6% 置信度
48%
I estimate Yes at about 50%, below the 55.9% market price. An official end announcement by year-end is plausible, but the remaining time and recent downward price trend do not support the market’s higher probability with confidence.
2026/9/24 18:03:00 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
63.45¢
At a market price near 63.5%, Yes looks modestly underpriced: several months remain for a general end or suspension to be officially announced, and recent momentum supports repricing. Strict announcement criteria and geopolitical uncertainty limit the edge.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 A clear official announcement of a general end or suspension would raise the estimate. · Evidence the blockade will persist, or only narrow exemptions are offered, would lower it.
Yes 看漲 ↑ 預測偏差
+3% 置信度
46%
At a market price near 63.5%, Yes looks modestly underpriced: several months remain for a general end or suspension to be officially announced, and recent momentum supports repricing. Strict announcement criteria and geopolitical uncertainty limit the edge.
2026/9/23 06:01:59 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
64.5¢
The market implies a 64.5% chance, but the heavy ask-side depth, recent one-hour and six-hour declines, and substantial event uncertainty suggest a modestly lower fair probability near 63%. Longer-term momentum remains positive, limiting conviction.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Official U.S. announcement ending or suspending the blockade · Sustained move below 0.62 or above 0.68 · Major escalation or diplomatic agreement
Yes 看跌 ↓ 預測偏差
-1% 置信度
58%
The market implies a 64.5% chance, but the heavy ask-side depth, recent one-hour and six-hour declines, and substantial event uncertainty suggest a modestly lower fair probability near 63%. Longer-term momentum remains positive, limiting conviction.
