Yes ↓ -8% 8/3/2026, 12:01:41
The current price appears above my estimated probability of a qualifying announcement, so the better trade is against Yes.
統一市場視圖
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
在一個頁面查看模型觀點、訂單簿、價格歷史和相關鯨魚流向。
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
決策狀態
行動：賣出
賣出
模型偏差 Yes ↓ -8%
置信度 74%
模型運行時價格 18.4¢ 模型運行: 8/3/2026, 12:01:41
即時最佳賣價 13.7¢ 即時更新: 8/3/2026, 17:48:51
模型 gpt-5.4-mini
The current price appears above my estimated probability of a qualifying announcement, so the better trade is against Yes.
觀察觸發點
- No official end/suspension announcement observed
- Event definition is strict and narrow
- Price has fallen sharply over 1d/1w
行動依據
The current price appears above my estimated probability of a qualifying announcement, so the better trade is against Yes.
失效觀察點
No official end/suspension announcement observed · Event definition is strict and narrow · Price has fallen sharply over 1d/1w
執行約束
價格 13.7¢ · 價差 0.6 pts · 流動性 $56,418。僅在模型觀點與市場盤口一致時行動。
概要
更新時間 8/3/2026, 17:48:51
操作建議
觀望最佳賣價 ?
13.7¢24h 成交量 ?
$119,991流動性 ?
$56,418未平倉量 ?
—價差 ?
0.6¢深度不平衡 ?
-5.6%動量 ?
-28.7%波動率 ?
2.0%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 暫無明顯優勢
規則說明
- 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
13.1¢ 1,075.09
13¢ 8.4
12.9¢ 38.75
12.8¢ 134.07
12.5¢ 100
賣盤
13.7¢ 116
13.8¢ 212.59
13.9¢ 30
14¢ 1,151.88
14.1¢ 5.37
價格歷史
區間: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:23:10 13.65¢
8/3/2026, 17:25:11 13.65¢
8/3/2026, 17:27:10 13.65¢
8/3/2026, 17:29:10 13.45¢
8/3/2026, 17:31:10 13.45¢
8/3/2026, 17:33:10 13.45¢
8/3/2026, 17:35:10 13.45¢
8/3/2026, 17:37:10 13.45¢
8/3/2026, 17:39:10 13.45¢
8/3/2026, 17:41:08 13.4¢
8/3/2026, 17:43:10 13.4¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:10 13.4¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↓ -14% 8/3/2026, 06:01:33
Price is near fair for a low-probability political announcement market; the upside from a surprise is offset by the difficulty of meeting the strict official-announcement standard.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交目前 24h 快取中暫無相關大額成交。