Yes ↓ -9% 8/3/2026, 18:01:55
The current Yes price looks elevated versus the low-probability threshold for a formal reversal announcement, and recent momentum plus orderbook depth favor No.
統一市場視圖
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
在一個頁面查看模型觀點、訂單簿、價格歷史和相關鯨魚流向。
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
決策狀態
行動：賣出
賣出
模型偏差 Yes ↓ -9%
置信度 78%
模型運行時價格 14¢ 模型運行: 8/3/2026, 18:01:55
即時最佳賣價 20.6¢ 即時更新: 8/3/2026, 18:48:08
模型 gpt-5.4-mini
The current Yes price looks elevated versus the low-probability threshold for a formal reversal announcement, and recent momentum plus orderbook depth favor No.
觀察觸發點
- No best bid/ask near 0.867-0.868
- Yes price declined 25% over 1d
- 1w Yes trend remains weak
行動依據
The current Yes price looks elevated versus the low-probability threshold for a formal reversal announcement, and recent momentum plus orderbook depth favor No.
失效觀察點
No best bid/ask near 0.867-0.868 · Yes price declined 25% over 1d · 1w Yes trend remains weak
執行約束
價格 20.6¢ · 價差 1.9 pts · 流動性 $52,230。僅在模型觀點與市場盤口一致時行動。
概要
更新時間 8/3/2026, 18:48:08
操作建議
觀望最佳賣價 ?
20.6¢24h 成交量 ?
$140,971流動性 ?
$52,230未平倉量 ?
—價差 ?
2.1¢深度不平衡 ?
46.1%動量 ?
5.6%波動率 ?
3.8%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 波動過大
規則說明
- 波動過大時降級為觀望，避免噪音。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
18.9¢ 10
18.6¢ 209.99
18.5¢ 264
18.4¢ 201
18.3¢ 3,000
賣盤
21¢ 10
21.4¢ 14.99
21.5¢ 10
21.9¢ 75
22¢ 1,250
價格歷史
區間: 6h
8/3/2026, 18:24:11 19.35¢
8/3/2026, 18:26:08 21¢
8/3/2026, 18:28:09 20.55¢
8/3/2026, 18:30:12 21.65¢
8/3/2026, 18:32:10 21.2¢
8/3/2026, 18:34:10 23.1¢
8/3/2026, 18:36:08 20.3¢
8/3/2026, 18:38:11 19.85¢
8/3/2026, 18:40:21 19.65¢
8/3/2026, 18:42:10 19.7¢
8/3/2026, 18:44:10 19.05¢
8/3/2026, 18:45:08 19.65¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↓ -8% 8/3/2026, 12:01:41
The current price appears above my estimated probability of a qualifying announcement, so the better trade is against Yes.
Yes ↓ -14% 8/3/2026, 06:01:33
Price is near fair for a low-probability political announcement market; the upside from a surprise is offset by the difficulty of meeting the strict official-announcement standard.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交目前 24h 快取中暫無相關大額成交。