Yes ↓ -2% 8/14/2026, 06:00:53
Yes is slightly overpriced relative to the chance of an official termination announcement, but the spread is tight and liquidity is adequate, so the edge is small rather than strong.
統一市場視圖
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
在一個頁面查看模型觀點、訂單簿、價格歷史和相關鯨魚流向。
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
決策狀態
觀望：價格接近合理值
觀望
模型偏差 Yes ↓ -2%
置信度 76%
模型運行時價格 12¢ 模型運行: 8/14/2026, 06:00:53
即時最佳賣價 13¢ 即時更新: 8/14/2026, 07:02:28
模型 gpt-5.4-mini
Yes is slightly overpriced relative to the chance of an official termination announcement, but the spread is tight and liquidity is adequate, so the edge is small rather than strong.
觀察觸發點
- Yes at 0.12 vs implied low event probability
- Recent 24h price drop to 0.12
- Orderbook favors No heavily
為何暫不行動
Yes is slightly overpriced relative to the chance of an official termination announcement, but the spread is tight and liquidity is adequate, so the edge is small rather than strong.
重新評估條件
Yes at 0.12 vs implied low event probability · Recent 24h price drop to 0.12 · Orderbook favors No heavily
執行約束
價格 13¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $47,538。僅在模型觀點與市場盤口一致時行動。
概要
更新時間 8/14/2026, 07:02:28
操作建議
觀望最佳賣價 ?
13¢24h 成交量 ?
$123,100流動性 ?
$47,538未平倉量 ?
—價差 ?
1¢深度不平衡 ?
68.6%動量 ?
-10.7%波動率 ?
1.3%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 暫無明顯優勢
規則說明
- 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
12¢ 10,890.27
11¢ 20,512.43
10¢ 16,907.49
9¢ 20,650
8¢ 1,205
賣盤
13¢ 1,684.18
14¢ 5,293.88
15¢ 1,252.38
16¢ 3,370
17¢ 1,476.47
價格歷史
區間: 6h
8/14/2026, 06:35:13 12.5¢
8/14/2026, 06:37:11 12.5¢
8/14/2026, 06:39:12 12.5¢
8/14/2026, 06:41:09 12.5¢
8/14/2026, 06:43:09 12.5¢
8/14/2026, 06:45:09 12.5¢
8/14/2026, 06:47:29 12.5¢
8/14/2026, 06:49:14 12.5¢
8/14/2026, 06:51:09 12.5¢
8/14/2026, 06:53:25 12.5¢
8/14/2026, 06:55:12 12.5¢
8/14/2026, 06:57:09 12.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · No 8/13/2026, 21:18:25
$6,720 84¢