Yes → 0% 2026/9/17 18:02:15
The market price appears broadly aligned with the available evidence: strong weekly repricing favors continued ceasefire, while the long horizon leaves meaningful risk of a qualifying strike.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
暫無方向
觀望：價格接近合理值執行狀態
觀察
模型偏差 Yes → 0%
置信度 64%
模型運行時價格 91¢ 模型運行: 2026/9/17 18:02:15
即時最佳賣價 92¢ 即時更新: 2026/9/17 20:48:19
模型 OpenAI
Yes is priced near 0.91, consistent with strong recent weekly momentum and substantial liquidity. However, the long time to expiry and recent short-term pullback create substantial event risk, so the available data does not establish a clear mispricing.
觀察觸發點
- Confirmed qualifying air or surface-to-surface strike
- Sustained break below 0.90
- Recovery above 0.93 with supporting news
為何暫不行動
Yes is priced near 0.91, consistent with strong recent weekly momentum and substantial liquidity. However, the long time to expiry and recent short-term pullback create substantial event risk, so the available data does not establish a clear mispricing.
重新評估條件
Confirmed qualifying air or surface-to-surface strike · Sustained break below 0.90 · Recovery above 0.93 with supporting news
執行約束
價格 92¢ · 價差 2 pts · 流動性 $79,852。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/9/17 20:48:19
模型觀點
偏向下行最佳賣價 ?
92¢24h 成交量 ?
$50,292流動性 ?
$79,852未平倉量 ?
$1,089,139價差 ?
2¢深度不平衡 ?
-75.0%動量 ?
-1.6%波動率 ?
0.2%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 動量下行
- 賣盤深度占優
- 價差不大（<=2¢）
規則說明
- 動量 = 選定區間內的價格變化，負值代表下行。
- 深度不平衡比較買賣盤總量，負值代表賣盤占優。
- 價差 = 最佳賣價 - 最佳買價，越小越容易進出。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
90¢ 3,642.63
89¢ 8,534.27
88¢ 3,546.95
87¢ 1,680.51
86¢ 4,984.23
賣盤
92¢ 2,490.49
93¢ 8,314.4
94¢ 28,985.69
95¢ 25,251.59
96¢ 91,873.14
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/9/17 20:24:14 91¢
2026/9/17 20:26:15 91¢
2026/9/17 20:28:15 91¢
2026/9/17 20:30:19 91¢
2026/9/17 20:32:28 91¢
2026/9/17 20:34:14 91¢
2026/9/17 20:36:24 91.5¢
2026/9/17 20:38:15 91.5¢
2026/9/17 20:40:17 91.5¢
2026/9/17 20:42:15 90.5¢
2026/9/17 20:44:15 91¢
2026/9/17 20:46:11 91¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↓ -2% 2026/9/17 12:03:00
The market price appears modestly above estimated fair probability despite strong recent momentum.
Yes ↓ -1% 2026/9/17 06:02:10
Price momentum supports continued ceasefire expectations, but the market is already highly valued and the estimated divergence is small.
Yes ↓ -2% 2026/9/17 00:02:40
Yes appears slightly above the model's estimated fair probability near 89%, implying limited downside value for the primary outcome.
Yes ↓ -6% 2026/9/16 18:01:40
Yes appears priced above estimated fair value because a long remaining horizon leaves meaningful exposure to renewed Israel-Iran strikes.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交目前 24h 快取中暫無相關大額成交。