Yes → 0% 2026/9/17 18:01:56
Momentum is mixed across timeframes and the market is liquid with a narrow spread, leaving no clear mispricing.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
暫無方向
資料缺口執行狀態
觀察
模型偏差 Yes → 0%
置信度 48%
模型運行時價格 49¢ 模型運行: 2026/9/17 18:01:56
即時最佳賣價 45¢ 即時更新: 2026/9/17 20:48:07
模型 OpenAI
The Yes price is near 46–47% in the actionable order book. Recent daily movement is modestly positive, but the sharp weekly decline and substantial volatility offset that signal; available data does not support a reliable probability divergence.
觀察觸發點
- Sustained Yes price above 0.55
- Yes price below 0.40
- Major BTC volatility expansion
為何暫不行動
The Yes price is near 46–47% in the actionable order book. Recent daily movement is modestly positive, but the sharp weekly decline and substantial volatility offset that signal; available data does not support a reliable probability divergence.
重新評估條件
Sustained Yes price above 0.55 · Yes price below 0.40 · Major BTC volatility expansion
執行約束
價格 45¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $63,724。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/9/17 20:48:07
模型觀點
偏向下行最佳賣價 ?
45¢24h 成交量 ?
$14,315流動性 ?
$63,724未平倉量 ?
$2,440,311價差 ?
1¢深度不平衡 ?
-16.3%動量 ?
-8.2%波動率 ?
1.3%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 動量下行
- 賣盤深度占優
- 價差不大（<=2¢）
規則說明
- 動量 = 選定區間內的價格變化，負值代表下行。
- 深度不平衡比較買賣盤總量，負值代表賣盤占優。
- 價差 = 最佳賣價 - 最佳買價，越小越容易進出。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
44¢ 100
43¢ 5,643.08
42¢ 21,275
41¢ 577.19
40¢ 470
賣盤
45¢ 12,388.01
46¢ 2,812
47¢ 20,702
48¢ 3,000
49¢ 100
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/9/17 20:26:12 45.5¢
2026/9/17 20:28:13 45.5¢
2026/9/17 20:30:13 45.5¢
2026/9/17 20:32:26 45.5¢
2026/9/17 20:34:12 45.5¢
2026/9/17 20:36:15 45.5¢
2026/9/17 20:38:13 45.5¢
2026/9/17 20:40:13 45.5¢
2026/9/17 20:42:13 44.5¢
2026/9/17 20:44:13 44.5¢
2026/9/17 20:46:09 43.5¢
2026/9/17 20:47:10 44.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↓ -3% 2026/9/17 12:02:21
The primary outcome appears slightly above model fair value after sustained downward momentum.
Yes ↓ -1% 2026/9/17 06:02:36
Yes appears slightly overpriced relative to the model, supported by bearish weekly momentum and pronounced sell-side depth.
Yes ↓ -2% 2026/9/17 00:03:47
The model sees a small negative edge for Yes, with recent strength offset by a pronounced weekly deterioration and substantial uncertainty over the long horizon.
Yes ↓ -4% 2026/9/16 18:03:20
The model sees a modest negative divergence for Yes, supported by persistent downward momentum and a heavily supplied ask book. Reassess if price momentum reverses or Yes falls materially below 0.35.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · No 2026/9/17 13:27:40
$6,662 89.59¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/17 12:14:57
$8,605 86¢