模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
16.5¢
Texas’s growth-oriented posture and the narrow resolution test make enactment less likely than the 16.5% market price implies. Local limits, executive actions, and incentive cuts do not qualify; statewide grid stress and legislative risk leave meaningful tail risk.
說明 edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 A mandatory statewide moratorium bill advances · Texas lawmakers signal support for a qualifying ban · Policy remains limited to local rules or incentives
Yes 看跌 ↓ 預測偏差
-4% 置信度
59%
Texas’s growth-oriented posture and the narrow resolution test make enactment less likely than the 16.5% market price implies. Local limits, executive actions, and incentive cuts do not qualify; statewide grid stress and legislative risk leave meaningful tail risk.