模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
29.5¢
The civil complaint does not itself indicate that criminal charges are imminent, and the alleged incident occurred nearly two years ago with only a few months left in the window. I estimate a 23% chance, below the 29.5% market price; credible evidence of an active criminal investigation would change that view.
說明 edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Official felony charge or indictment · Credible report of active prosecution · No charges as the deadline approaches
Yes 看跌 ↓ 預測偏差
-6% 置信度
57%
The civil complaint does not itself indicate that criminal charges are imminent, and the alleged incident occurred nearly two years ago with only a few months left in the window. I estimate a 23% chance, below the 29.5% market price; credible evidence of an active criminal investigation would change that view.