Yes → 0% 2026/9/17 18:03:11
Price action is stable near 16% with a tight spread and balanced but slightly supportive Yes depth. Reassess if credible nomination signals or a sustained break from the recent 12%–19% range emerges.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
暫無方向
觀望：價格接近合理值執行狀態
觀察
模型偏差 Yes → 0%
置信度 58%
模型運行時價格 16¢ 模型運行: 2026/9/17 18:03:11
即時最佳賣價 16¢ 即時更新: 2026/9/17 20:46:44
模型 OpenAI
The 16.0% market price appears broadly reasonable for a long-horizon nomination market with substantial candidate, electoral, and field uncertainty. Recent weekly strength is offset by mild short-term softness, so no reliable probability divergence is evident.
觀察觸發點
- Credible primary endorsement or campaign announcement
- Sustained move outside the recent trading range
- Major changes in the Democratic candidate field
為何暫不行動
The 16.0% market price appears broadly reasonable for a long-horizon nomination market with substantial candidate, electoral, and field uncertainty. Recent weekly strength is offset by mild short-term softness, so no reliable probability divergence is evident.
重新評估條件
Credible primary endorsement or campaign announcement · Sustained move outside the recent trading range · Major changes in the Democratic candidate field
執行約束
價格 16¢ · 價差 0.1 pts · 流動性 $429,191。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/9/17 20:46:44
模型觀點
觀察最佳賣價 ?
16¢24h 成交量 ?
$12,177流動性 ?
$429,191未平倉量 ?
$10,513,667價差 ?
0.1¢深度不平衡 ?
2.3%動量 ?
0.0%波動率 ?
0.0%趨勢斜率 ?
0原因
- 暫無明顯優勢
規則說明
- 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
15.9¢ 2,360.81
15.8¢ 2,393.5
15.7¢ 1,517.44
15.6¢ 2,200
15.5¢ 700
賣盤
16¢ 3,678.65
16.1¢ 514.34
16.2¢ 3,667.9
16.3¢ 200
16.4¢ 700
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/9/17 20:25:15 15.95¢
2026/9/17 20:27:13 15.95¢
2026/9/17 20:29:17 15.95¢
2026/9/17 20:31:13 15.95¢
2026/9/17 20:33:09 15.95¢
2026/9/17 20:35:14 15.95¢
2026/9/17 20:37:13 15.95¢
2026/9/17 20:39:14 15.95¢
2026/9/17 20:41:28 15.95¢
2026/9/17 20:43:13 15.95¢
2026/9/17 20:45:14 15.95¢
2026/9/17 20:46:10 15.95¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes → 0% 2026/9/17 12:03:41
No reliable divergence from the market price is evident.
Yes → 0% 2026/9/17 06:03:39
The quoted price appears broadly consistent with the available market evidence, but the 2028 horizon leaves substantial political uncertainty.
Yes ↑ +1% 2026/9/17 00:04:37
The market appears slightly below a cautious fair-value estimate, but the edge is small and uncertainty is high given the long horizon and recent one-day decline.
Yes → 0% 2026/9/16 18:04:04
No clear mispricing is detected from the available orderbook and price history. The view should be revisited after major candidate, polling, fundraising, or Democratic Party developments.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · Yes 2026/9/17 15:09:28
$6,196 8.66¢