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預測歷史

Market #562793

8/3/2026, 18:03:45 gpt-5.4-mini
買賣點 觀望 時間尺度 中線 當前價 45¢

Price is tight and stable with no strong trend or liquidity dislocation, so there is no clear edge to act on.

說明 edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

觸發點 Flat 1h/1d price action · Small 1-cent spread · Order book only mildly favors Yes
Yes 看跌 ↓ 預測偏差 -1% 置信度 62%

Yes trades at 0.45, but the Senate control path still looks slightly more likely for No given current pricing, balanced book, and no recent bullish momentum in Yes.

8/3/2026, 12:03:25 gpt-5.4-mini
買賣點 觀望 時間尺度 中線 當前價 45¢

Price is range-bound with balanced liquidity and no trend catalyst, so there is no strong entry edge.

說明 edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

觸發點 Flat 1h/1d history · Narrow 1-cent spread · Only mild bid depth advantage
Yes 看漲 ↑ 預測偏差 +1% 置信度 55%

Yes trades at 0.45 with slight bid support and narrow spread; recent action is flat, so only a small edge above market is justified.

8/3/2026, 06:03:01 gpt-5.4-mini
買賣點 觀望 時間尺度 中線 當前價 45¢

The market is tightly priced and has been flat for days, so the edge is too small to justify an active trade.

說明 edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

觸發點 0.45 mid with 0.01 spread · Flat 1d/6h trend · Only mild bid-side depth advantage
Yes 看漲 ↑ 預測偏差 +1% 置信度 53%

Yes trades at 0.45 with stable price action and slightly stronger bid depth; I see a small edge from modest orderbook support and no bearish trend signal.

8/3/2026, 00:03:19 gpt-5.4-mini
買賣點 觀望 時間尺度 中線 當前價 45¢

Price is range-bound with tight spread and mixed depth; any advantage is small and not strong enough to buy aggressively.

說明 edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

觸發點 Flat 1h/1d price history · Tight 1-cent spread · Only mild bid-depth edge on Yes
Yes 看漲 ↑ 預測偏差 +1% 置信度 55%

Yes trades at 0.45 with stable price action and slight bid-side depth advantage; I estimate a small premium to current price but not enough for a strong edge.

8/2/2026, 18:02:22 gpt-5.4-mini
買賣點 觀望 時間尺度 中線 當前價 44¢

Slight bearish edge on Yes at 0.44, with the market stable and bid/ask depth balanced near the midpoint.

說明 edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

觸發點 Yes is pinned at 0.44 · Orderbook imbalance is near neutral · No clear upward momentum
Yes 看跌 ↓ 預測偏差 -2% 置信度 58%

Yes trades at 0.44, but Senate control appears slightly more likely to remain Republican than the price implies; current move is flat with balanced orderbook and no momentum edge.