Yes ↑ +1% 2026/9/11 06:04:46
Momentum is modestly favorable for Yes, but the large ask imbalance and limited election information leave no clear valuation divergence.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
暫無方向
資料缺口執行狀態
觀察
模型偏差 Yes ↑ +1%
置信度 38%
模型運行時價格 15¢ 模型運行: 2026/9/11 06:04:46
即時最佳賣價 15¢ 即時更新: 2026/9/11 10:08:56
模型 OpenAI
The Yes price has risen from 11.5% to 14.5% over the week and from 13.5% to 14.5% over the day, indicating improving sentiment. However, substantial ask-side depth and the long time to expiry limit confidence that the current 15% price is materially below fair value.
觀察觸發點
- Sustained Yes trading above 18%
- New national or district polling
- Material change in House control forecasts
為何暫不行動
The Yes price has risen from 11.5% to 14.5% over the week and from 13.5% to 14.5% over the day, indicating improving sentiment. However, substantial ask-side depth and the long time to expiry limit confidence that the current 15% price is materially below fair value.
重新評估條件
Sustained Yes trading above 18% · New national or district polling · Material change in House control forecasts
執行約束
價格 15¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $190,106。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/9/11 10:08:56
模型觀點
偏向上行最佳賣價 ?
15¢24h 成交量 ?
$214,509流動性 ?
$190,106未平倉量 ?
$4,091,358價差 ?
1¢深度不平衡 ?
56.7%動量 ?
7.4%波動率 ?
0.6%趨勢斜率 ?
0原因
- 動量上行
- 買盤深度占優
- 價差不大（<=2¢）
規則說明
- 動量 = 選定區間內的價格變化，正值代表上行。
- 深度不平衡比較買賣盤總量，正值代表買盤占優。
- 價差 = 最佳賣價 - 最佳買價，越小越容易進出。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
14¢ 7,351.31
13¢ 20,571.69
12¢ 44,740.35
11¢ 162,409
10¢ 22,271.76
賣盤
15¢ 14,850.21
16¢ 14,499.14
17¢ 18,869.99
18¢ 10,664.18
19¢ 12,273.13
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/9/11 09:45:18 14.5¢
2026/9/11 09:47:13 14.5¢
2026/9/11 09:49:26 14.5¢
2026/9/11 09:51:13 14.5¢
2026/9/11 09:53:17 14.5¢
2026/9/11 09:55:14 14.5¢
2026/9/11 09:57:17 14.5¢
2026/9/11 09:59:31 14.5¢
2026/9/11 10:01:31 14.5¢
2026/9/11 10:03:19 14.5¢
2026/9/11 10:05:19 14.5¢
2026/9/11 10:06:13 14.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · Yes 2026/9/11 07:36:06
$6,997 87¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/11 05:22:34
$10,000 15¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/11 04:55:24
$10,000 14.95¢