Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 12:02:51
No clear mispricing: recent drift is mixed, spread is tight, and orderbook is strongly balanced toward no rather than yes. Edge is modestly negative but not enough for a strong sell at current levels.
統一市場視圖
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
在一個頁面查看模型觀點、訂單簿、價格歷史和相關鯨魚流向。
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
決策狀態
觀察觸發點
觀望
模型偏差 Yes ↓ -3%
置信度 62%
模型運行時價格 53.1¢ 模型運行: 8/3/2026, 12:02:51
即時最佳賣價 51.9¢ 即時更新: 8/3/2026, 17:48:53
模型 gpt-5.4-mini
No clear mispricing: recent drift is mixed, spread is tight, and orderbook is strongly balanced toward no rather than yes. Edge is modestly negative but not enough for a strong sell at current levels.
觀察觸發點
- Yes price is slightly elevated
- Ballon d'Or is highly competitive
- Orderbook favors No liquidity
為何暫不行動
No clear mispricing: recent drift is mixed, spread is tight, and orderbook is strongly balanced toward no rather than yes. Edge is modestly negative but not enough for a strong sell at current levels.
重新評估條件
Yes price is slightly elevated · Ballon d'Or is highly competitive · Orderbook favors No liquidity
執行約束
價格 51.9¢ · 價差 0.1 pts · 流動性 $397,727。僅在模型觀點與市場盤口一致時行動。
概要
更新時間 8/3/2026, 17:48:53
操作建議
賣出最佳賣價 ?
51.9¢24h 成交量 ?
$27,593流動性 ?
$397,727未平倉量 ?
—價差 ?
0.1¢深度不平衡 ?
-62.7%動量 ?
-2.3%波動率 ?
0.1%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 動量下行
- 賣盤深度占優
- 價差不大（<=2¢）
規則說明
- 動量 = 選定區間內的價格變化，負值代表下行。
- 深度不平衡比較買賣盤總量，負值代表賣盤占優。
- 價差 = 最佳賣價 - 最佳買價，越小越容易進出。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
51.8¢ 99.97
51.6¢ 586.5
51.5¢ 1,700.01
51.3¢ 200.97
51.2¢ 2,000
賣盤
51.9¢ 17,400.52
52¢ 500
52.6¢ 110
52.8¢ 1,497
52.9¢ 528
價格歷史
區間: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:25:11 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:27:10 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:29:10 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:31:10 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:33:10 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:35:10 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:37:10 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:39:10 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:41:08 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:43:10 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:11 51.85¢
8/3/2026, 17:46:10 51.85¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↓ -8% 8/3/2026, 06:02:54
Yes looks slightly overpriced versus the current setup: recent run-up is extended, while depth and imbalance favor No more than the market price reflects.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 00:02:55
Yes appears slightly overbought relative to orderbook and the event is still far away, so fading the current price offers better risk-reward than buying.
Yes ↓ -7% 8/2/2026, 18:02:34
Mild negative edge versus current price, plus orderbook leans against further upside; with no momentum or volatility signal, fading the current price is preferred.
Yes ↓ -12% 8/2/2026, 12:02:57
The market looks modestly overvalued on Yes relative to fundamentals and orderbook imbalance, so fading the current price offers better value than buying.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交目前 24h 快取中暫無相關大額成交。