Yes → 0% 2026/10/11 18:00:44
There is no clear divergence from the market-implied probability, while the supplied political fundamentals are sparse.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
暫無方向
資料缺口執行狀態
觀察
模型偏差 Yes → 0%
置信度 48%
模型運行時價格 33.5¢ 模型運行: 2026/10/11 18:00:44
即時最佳賣價 34¢ 即時更新: 2026/10/11 20:43:28
保守凱利參考 — 暫不計算 · 目前模型版本至少需要 30 個已結算樣本、Brier 分數 ≤ 0.25，且低於市場機率基準
模型 OpenAI
The Yes price is about 33.5%, and the supplied data contains no polling, coalition, or candidate information to support a distinct probability estimate. Recent price movements and book imbalance are not sufficient evidence of a durable mispricing.
觀察觸發點
- Credible polling shifts Netanyahu’s support materially.
- Coalition negotiations change his path to a majority.
- Election results or appointment developments emerge.
為何暫不行動
The Yes price is about 33.5%, and the supplied data contains no polling, coalition, or candidate information to support a distinct probability estimate. Recent price movements and book imbalance are not sufficient evidence of a durable mispricing.
重新評估條件
Credible polling shifts Netanyahu’s support materially. · Coalition negotiations change his path to a majority. · Election results or appointment developments emerge.
執行約束
價格 34¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $354,443。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/10/11 20:43:28
使用 6h 區間的價格動量與波動率，結合目前盤口深度、價差及流動性；不是 AI 機率預測，可能與模型觀點不同。
價格與盤口規則
觀察最佳賣價 ?
34¢24h 成交量 ?
$195,540流動性 ?
$354,443未平倉量 ?
$3,705,512價差 ?
1¢深度不平衡 ?
28.8%動量 ?
0.0%波動率 ?
0.4%趨勢斜率 ?
0原因
- 目前未觸發方向性規則
規則說明
- 價格動量與盤口深度未同時達到方向性閾值。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
33¢ 28,619.1
32¢ 10,315.6
31¢ 106,728.39
30¢ 43,607.04
29¢ 61,829.4
賣盤
34¢ 25,565.34
35¢ 40,313.61
36¢ 39,581.42
37¢ 21,765.09
38¢ 11,572.8
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/10/11 20:17:16 33.5¢
2026/10/11 20:19:22 33.5¢
2026/10/11 20:21:22 33.5¢
2026/10/11 20:23:22 33.5¢
2026/10/11 20:25:27 33.5¢
2026/10/11 20:27:17 33.5¢
2026/10/11 20:29:23 33.5¢
2026/10/11 20:31:23 33.5¢
2026/10/11 20:33:23 33.5¢
2026/10/11 20:35:24 33.5¢
2026/10/11 20:37:30 33.5¢
2026/10/11 20:38:23 33.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes → 0% 2026/10/10 06:05:04
No clear divergence from the 35.5% market price is supported by the available evidence.
Yes → 0% 2026/10/9 18:04:47
No clear divergence from the 36.5% market estimate is supported by these data; balanced depth and recent price movement alone are insufficient.
Yes → 0% 2026/10/8 12:05:08
No clear divergence from the market price is detectable from orderbook and price history alone; political and coalition developments could materially change the odds.
Yes → 0% 2026/10/7 12:00:47
No clear divergence from fair value is detectable; the recent price and depth signals do not outweigh the uncertainty around the election.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · Yes 2026/10/11 14:24:12
$7,482 34.64¢
買入 · Yes 2026/10/11 14:20:52
$5,990 35¢
買入 · Yes 2026/10/11 13:56:01
$5,900 34.18¢
賣出 · Yes 2026/10/11 13:55:24
$5,904 40.42¢
買入 · Yes 2026/10/11 13:55:04
$5,970 40.87¢