Yes ↓ -3% 8/20/2026, 18:01:06
Yes appears slightly overpriced versus the tail-event probability; selling/shorting Yes is favored if you can hold the position through expiry risk.
統一市場視圖
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
在一個頁面查看模型觀點、訂單簿、價格歷史和相關鯨魚流向。
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
決策狀態
觀察觸發點
觀望
模型偏差 Yes ↓ -3%
置信度 74%
模型運行時價格 38¢ 模型運行: 8/20/2026, 18:01:06
即時最佳賣價 34¢ 即時更新: 8/20/2026, 23:53:36
模型 gpt-5.4-mini
Yes appears slightly overpriced versus the tail-event probability; selling/shorting Yes is favored if you can hold the position through expiry risk.
觀察觸發點
- Yes at 0.35-0.38 vs low tail odds
- Ask depth exceeds bid depth on Yes
- 1d/1w trend on Yes is down
為何暫不行動
Yes appears slightly overpriced versus the tail-event probability; selling/shorting Yes is favored if you can hold the position through expiry risk.
重新評估條件
Yes at 0.35-0.38 vs low tail odds · Ask depth exceeds bid depth on Yes · 1d/1w trend on Yes is down
執行約束
價格 34¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $93,149。僅在模型觀點與市場盤口一致時行動。
概要
更新時間 8/20/2026, 23:53:36
操作建議
觀望最佳賣價 ?
34¢24h 成交量 ?
$131,008流動性 ?
$93,149未平倉量 ?
—價差 ?
1¢深度不平衡 ?
32.3%動量 ?
-5.6%波動率 ?
0.3%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 暫無明顯優勢
規則說明
- 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
33¢ 20,064.6
32¢ 3,854.88
31¢ 705
30¢ 5,990.51
29¢ 460
賣盤
34¢ 798.29
35¢ 7,780.11
36¢ 7,100
37¢ 126.4
38¢ 100
價格歷史
區間: 6h
8/20/2026, 23:28:13 33.5¢
8/20/2026, 23:30:13 33.5¢
8/20/2026, 23:32:10 33.5¢
8/20/2026, 23:34:13 33.5¢
8/20/2026, 23:36:13 33.5¢
8/20/2026, 23:38:28 33.5¢
8/20/2026, 23:40:14 33.5¢
8/20/2026, 23:42:13 33.5¢
8/20/2026, 23:44:13 33.5¢
8/20/2026, 23:46:14 33.5¢
8/20/2026, 23:48:10 33.5¢
8/20/2026, 23:49:13 33.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↓ -3% 8/20/2026, 12:03:40
Price is close to fair value with no clear mispricing. Recent bearish drift in Yes is offset by supportive bid depth and moderate liquidity, leaving no strong trade edge.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交目前 24h 快取中暫無相關大額成交。