Unified market view

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Hold: Efficient price

Hold

Model edge Yes ↑ +2%

Confidence 58%

Price at model run 31¢ Model run: 8/26/2026, 06:01:43

Live best ask 31¢ Live update: 8/26/2026, 07:12:03

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Current price looks roughly efficient. Any bullish case for Yes is small, while tournament outcome risk remains high and the market has already moved up over the week.

Watch triggers

Tight 1-cent spread
Balanced depth near top of book
Price already up 10 pts in 1w

Why not now

Current price looks roughly efficient. Any bullish case for Yes is small, while tournament outcome risk remains high and the market has already moved up over the week.

Revisit when

Tight 1-cent spread · Balanced depth near top of book · Price already up 10 pts in 1w

Execution guard

Price 31¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $110,128. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 8/26/2026, 07:12:03

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

31¢

Volume (24h) ?

$112,037

Liquidity ?

$110,128

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

-14.5%

Momentum ?

0.0%

Volatility ?

0.0%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

30¢ 43,429.55

29¢ 238

28¢ 5,325

27¢ 450

26¢ 317.89

Asks

31¢ 1,340.69

32¢ 48,597.9

33¢ 400

34¢ 967.16

35¢ 15,328.09

Price history

Interval: 6h

8/26/2026, 06:48:13 30.5¢

8/26/2026, 06:50:12 30.5¢

8/26/2026, 06:52:09 30.5¢

8/26/2026, 06:54:13 30.5¢

8/26/2026, 06:56:13 30.5¢

8/26/2026, 06:58:14 30.5¢

8/26/2026, 07:00:20 30.5¢

8/26/2026, 07:02:10 30.5¢

8/26/2026, 07:04:09 30.5¢

8/26/2026, 07:06:10 30.5¢

8/26/2026, 07:08:13 30.5¢

8/26/2026, 07:09:13 30.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↑ +2% 8/26/2026, 06:01:43

Current price looks roughly efficient. Any bullish case for Yes is small, while tournament outcome risk remains high and the market has already moved up over the week.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.